Express News | JPMorgan Revises Expectation for Brazil's Interest Rate in the End of the Current Cycle to 14.25% From 13%
Express News | JPMorgan Sees Brazil's Central Bank Hiking Rates by 100BP in Next Meeting - Report
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock
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Jpmorgan strategist: It is expected that the trend of polarization in the stock market will continue.
jpmorgan stated that the current stage of polarized performance in the regional market may continue until the first half of 2025, as investors will need to digest the potential heating trade uncertainties. Strategists like Mislav Matejka noted that the direction of the dollar and bonds yields is also crucial, and with the rising geopolitical uncertainties, the performance of the stock market at the beginning of the year may be more mixed. It was mentioned that the multiples in the international market do not appear excessive, while the usa valuations remain relatively high, but the relative spreads may stay elevated for a longer time. Due to extreme differences in inventory, valuations, and prices, the international stock market in 2025 may fare differently compared to the usa stock market.
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Deutsche Bank stated that US bank stocks have rebounded since the end of September.
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jpmorgan: As the dollar rises, the euro will surpass parity in 2025.
jpmorgan stated in the "2025 Global Forex Outlook" released on Tuesday that due to the "reinforcement of the usa exceptionalism, high interest rates, enhanced productivity, and widening innovation gaps," the dollar will strengthen and reach new highs, while the euro is expected to break parity in early 2025. The market has not yet fully absorbed the usa elections, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are insufficient to reverse the recent strength of the dollar; growth outside the usa seems unlikely to rebound, which helps support the dollar. jpmorgan expects the euro to usd exchange rates to reach 0.99 by the end of March, followed by a rebound to 1.08 by the end of the year; the market in the first quarter will further digest the situation.
Express News | JPMorgan Sees $169 Bln of Em Sovereign Hard Currency Isugross Issuance in 2025, Marginally Less Than 2024
Express News | JPMorgan Expects Growth to Slow in Emerging Markets to 3.4% in 2025, From 4.1% in 2024
Express News | JPMorgan Expects $5-$15 Bln in Outflows From Emerging Market Dedicated Bond Funds in 2025
jpmorgan expects the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield to be 4.25% by the end of 2025.
A team of strategists including jpmorgan's Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Liam Wash wrote in a report that the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield is expected to drift slightly lower for most of next year, with little change by the end of 2025 compared to current levels. The bank anticipates that as the u.s. economic growth slightly declines to around 2%, and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by an additional 100 basis points before the end of 2025, the performance of short-term u.s. treasury bonds will outperform long-term ones next year. The strategists predict that by the end of next year, the 2-year treasury notes yield will settle at 3.75%; compared to this.
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The short position of jpmorgan's usa treasury clients has risen to the highest level in a month.
JPMorgan's survey of US Treasury clients shows that as of the week ending November 25, both long and short positions increased by 2 percentage points each, while neutral positions decreased by 4 percentage points. Short positions reached their highest level since October 28, while neutral positions hit their lowest point since October 21. All clients (November 25 compared to November 18): Long: 22 vs. 20; Neutral: 67 vs. 71; Short: 11 vs. 9; Net long: 11 vs. 11. Active clients long: 22 vs. 22; Neutral: 78 vs. 78; Short: 0 vs. 0; Net long: 22 vs. 22.
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