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China's new social financing in August was 3.03 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 900 billion yuan, and the year-on-year decrease in M1 widened to 7.3%.
Supported by government crediting, the amount of new renminbi loans and new social financing in China in August both rebounded significantly. The financial 'squeeze water effect' continued, M1 money supply continued to decline, and the negative scissors gap of M1-M2 growth rate further widened.
China's new social financing in the first eight months of the year was 21.9 trillion yuan, with M2 growing 6.3% year-on-year in August.
① RMB loans increased by 14.43 trillion yuan in the first eight months. ② RMB deposits increased by 12.88 trillion yuan in the first eight months.
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General Administration of Customs: China's goods trade exports reached 16.45 trillion yuan in the first 8 months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first 8 months of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 6% year-on-year, and China's foreign trade continued to grow.
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The Renminbi exchange rates have rebounded, is there a possibility of a 500 billion liquidity release with reserve requirement cut in the third quarter?
1. Monetary policy also has a significant impact on exchange rates, and the implementation of monetary policy needs to take into account both internal and external balance, hence the need to consider exchange rates as an important factor; 2. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates within the year, with relatively limited internal and external constraints on our country's monetary policy, stabilizing exchange rates will marginally ease the constraints on loose monetary, 3. Several experts expect that reserve requirement ratio cuts are expected to be implemented in the third quarter, releasing 500 billion of liquidity if the cut is at 25 basis points.
CLSA C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: the domestic reserve requirement ratio is expected to be lowered, and it is expected that the central bank will have difficulty in reducing the central bank interest rate in September.
① The median forecast for new RMB loans in August is 0.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.45 trillion yuan less; ② The median forecast for social financing in August is 2.81 trillion yuan, and 70% of institutions predict a value exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan; ③ In terms of prices, the market predicts that CPI in August may continue to rise, and PPI may decline further; ④ The Federal Reserve has released its strongest signal of interest rate cuts, and the window for domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts may open in September-November.
Central Bank: There is still some room for a certain decrease in the statutory reserve ratio.
The director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, said that the average statutory reserve ratio of financial institutions is currently about 7%, which still has some room for decrease. Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, said that the People's Bank of China is continuously promoting high-level financial openness, actively participating in international financial governance and cooperation. As of the end of July, overseas investors hold a total of 4.5 trillion yuan of Chinese bonds, reaching a historical high.
Caixin C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: New credit in August may increase less than the same period last year, and the scale of new social financing is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan.
① The median forecast for RMB loans added in August is 0.91 trillion yuan, or an increase of 0.45 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; ② The median forecast for new social financing added in August is 2.81 trillion yuan, with 70% of institutions forecasting a value exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan; ③ In terms of prices, the market predicts that CPI will continue to rise in August, while PPI will worsen; ④ The Federal Reserve has signaled the strongest interest rate cut, and the window for domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts may open from September to November.
Can the RMB exchange rate continue to rise in September after the big rise in August? The key factor is still the settlement of foreign exchange, and the easing of exchange rate pressure is beneficial to the policy space of the central bank.
①The biggest uncertainty at present is still the exchange rate; ②Every March and September are key points for corporate exchange settlement. If the exchange rate of enterprises in September rises, the RMB exchange rate will inevitably strengthen; ③If the RMB exchange rate steadily rebounds in the second half of the year, combined with the factor of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the central bank and other relevant departments may have greater policy space.
The US dollar experienced a strong rebound this week. Be cautious about the performance of non-farm payrolls data beyond expectations this week.
Looking back at last week, the US dollar experienced a strong rebound; as for non-US currencies, the Japanese yen depreciated again near its previous high and fell back, while the euro and British pound fell back from their phase high points.
Is the era of high interest rates coming to an end, with the nine major central banks globally entering into interest rate cuts in September?
Although inflation in the service industry remains a problem, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will continue to implement loose monetary policies in early 2025. Beat Wittmann, Chairman and Partner of Porta Advisors, stated that interest rate cuts may cause short-term volatility in U.S. stocks but still have investment value.
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