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The 5-year LPR has dropped sharply by 60 basis points this year, refreshing the historical lowest record, and the real estate market is expected to welcome a "warm winter".
1. The central bank has lowered the loan market benchmark interest rate LPR for the third time this year, with a cumulative reduction of 60 basis points in the 5-year LPR, setting a new historical record. 2. "Interest rate cuts are conducive to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market. It is expected that some cities, especially first-tier and second-tier cities, will gradually stabilize, with the market quickly stabilizing, becoming a trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2024, a warm winter market will appear in certain market ranges."
In October, the LPR was lowered, and the LPR for more than 5 years has cumulatively decreased by 60 basis points this year. Existing house loan residents may save more than 0.24 million in interest.
①After the downward adjustment of the October LPR quote, it will drive a greater reduction in corporate and residential loan interest rates, thereby stimulating financing demand for the real economy, promoting consumption, expanding investment, boosting economic growth momentum, and driving a moderate rebound in commodity prices. ②Looking ahead, focusing on stabilizing and revitalizing the real estate market to boost economic growth momentum, drive a moderate rebound in commodity prices, there may still be some room for a downward adjustment of the LPR quote in 2025.
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①From the current policies and market trends, the gradual recovery of stock market and market confidence upwards is a high-probability event, and the overall risk of loans is still manageable. ②Although the interest rate spread of share buyback and shareholding loans is not particularly large, this business can be used to expand and maintain clients of listed companies, leading to more business opportunities. ③In practice, the main consideration may not necessarily be using purchased stocks as collateral, but more emphasis will be placed on the comprehensive credit rating of the borrower.
Today, the six major banks and others took the initiative to lower the deposit benchmark interest rates. Experts believe this shows the effective operation of the central bank's interest rate policy transmission mechanism, which will support the stability
On October 18, the major commercial banks have lowered the deposit listed interest rates, and the LPR reported on October 21 will also reflect the corresponding decrease in policy interest rates, indicating that the market-oriented interest rate control mechanism is further improved, and the interest rate transmission channels are effectively cleared. This adjustment of deposit rates by commercial banks is beneficial for reducing the bank's cost of liabilities, providing support for stabilizing net interest margins, and enhancing the sustainability of financial support for the real economy.
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