Lowe's Companies Stock Forum

10baggerbammOP : part 2
I believe the biggest percent gainer more than the regional Banks which you can see the gains that they have put on in the past two days in anticipation of rate cuts.
I believe the largest percent gainer out of sector any tech stock is DRN
within this real estate investment trust you have companies that own data centers that's right those two beautiful words you have some of the best real estate investment trust that are extremely depressed and these are not in States like California that are a train wreck with 40% vacancies these are in top cities around the country with very little vacancies where they have commercial properties it's type A they call it which is the best type of commercial property office building in the respective cities. and this whole sector has been absolutely kicked at a curb two reasons number one covid cause people to work out of their house and they throw the baby out with the bathwater is it saying goes so the entire real estate sector has been destroyed decimated. number two what they call Mark the market many of these commercial properties are sitting on banks books with values of four and five years ago 6 years ago when they were purchased with balloon mortgages and because a commercial property their true value is their rent roll not the building when you're sitting at 40% vacancy that's a garbage property when you're running at 98% occupancy it's worth its weight in gold. so we all know about all these so-called bobblehead saying that you know there's a trillion dollars it's going to come do and yes there will be defaults it's going to happen but when interest rates come down people are going to look the other way and they're going to buy sectors they're going to buy baskets of stocks they're going to buy individual companies that will benefit from the rising tide of rates going down.

10baggerbammOP : pt3
this is at least an 8 month trade from where we are right now and I've been recommending this I've traded it a couple of times I've sold naked puts I've been put the stock I've traded out of it it's thin but they're all been profitable trades.
so it's 890 today we're going to get a huge swing same with tomorrow we could be down 500 points in the market very easily 600 points we could wipe out the past two days worth of gaines if we get bad economic numbers today and tomorrow or we could be up significantly because it is confirmation that the economy is slowing. either way you need to have a 8-month window and I know that seems like an eternity when you see the games that some of these tech stocks are putting on some of these penny stocks are putting on every single day. but you need to position yourself ahead of the curve because money will rotate out of some of the winning magnificent seven stocks and there's so much profit in these that if 5% were to leave which is nothing 3% and go into these depressed sector it's going to go parabolic. so you can buy it out right here at 8.90 and I think conservatively in 8 months you're going to see between 16 and $20. downside well downside zero realistically but downside is about a buck and if it were to happen keep some of your powder drying average down or not because rates are going to come down. alternatively if you have a little bit more risk Capital available here's where you need to look at the options. February of 2025 is a furthest that they go out and that's what you need to buy. there's two different approaches number one because there's no volatility in the sector you're not paying a premium for that and because nobody's looking at it the time value is virtually non-existent it's neglected it's forgotten and this is where huge fortunes can be made because everybody's looking at what's going on on TV and no one's paying any attention to a sector that's severely out of favor.

10baggerbammOP : pt 4
the February 12 calls are bidding 35 cents asking 45 cents and you can put an order in between the spread $0.40 it may take an hour or two hours you're going to get filled.
so if we see 16 1/2 dollars which I think is very conservative by February expiration. your calls are worth $4.50 that's a 10x return..
alternatively you can go the other end of the spectrum and buy a deep in the money call option.
the February 25 $4 call options are bidding 4.80 asking 5.10.
you put an order in for five bucks if you look at what you're getting versus time value and risk let's suppose I'm completely wrong and come February it does nothing it stays here at 8.90 you're getting back $4.90. it cost you 10 cents that's your loss based off of what I need to be the worst case scenario obviously it could all go to zero but I don't think that's going to happen. by buying a deep in the money you're getting almost twice the leverage of buying the common stock and you get tick for tick appreciation so again at 16.5  and I think it could go and push 20 if not 21 best case scenario. your 12.50 in the money unless your call contract say five bucks means $7.50 profit per contract. there's advantages to buying deep in the money it's a more conservative option play but for me I'm buying the out of the monies and I'm swinging for the fence.

10baggerbammOP : I just wanted to add this as a caveat..
if you look what happens to companies when they fall out of favor institutions dump them hedge funds dump them you may have some contrarian or value funds that hold on but for the most part they are kicked to the curb. so as a basket the amount of pension plans in mutual funds and hedge funds that could buy these out of favor companies versus those that hold them is very very small so when there is a rotation back and what goes out of favor back in favor you see enormous swings and you can see that for example in what happened with Apple you can see it with what happened with Tesla two recent examples of great companies that fell out of favor and were dead money for a year and a half to two years and all of a sudden you get a changing of the guard. and there's a reason to own them and now out of the universe of mutual funds hedge funds pension plans that can own them that do it's a very small number so they have to buy in and even buying in at small amounts causes these massive swings in the underlying companies.

10baggerbammOP 10baggerbammOP: and that's what I believe is going to happen with this real estate investment trust. and the real estate industry as a whole with the best companies cuz they will rise first. the universe of pension plans mutual funds hedge funds that can buy them that do own them is like 95% have no ownership nothing so even if they buy a position that's two or three percent of the entire portfolio up from zero that's going to move the sector up 100 plus percent because it's so underweighted. and once money starts flowing in then you're going to see momentum investors the second tier of buyers come in the bobbleheads on TV that we're not smart enough to go in ahead of the curve will now be saying well I look real estate stocks because they have been so long forgotten and now with rates coming down it just makes sense to buy them. so you're going to see this natural cascading event take place I wanted to add this because I think it's important. it doesn't matter what the sector is doesn't matter how bad the sector is people will always buy and some ahead of the curve and some while it's moving. I think a year from today you're going to see the real estate sector is the largest percent gainer out of every sector regardless of who's president

74478610 : This is the best way to stay updated.

Silverbat : Expectations already too high

102328260 : Wow... Up up up

102328260 : Hope will be $1000

OceansWave : It’s already more or less confirmed that May will have no rate cut at all.. earliest possible will be June… doubt that we will see any rate cuts early at all