Median rent price falls to $1,967/month in November marking its largest decline in 3 years, according to Redfin. The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month. Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022. These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak. The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$$Zillow-C (Z.US)$$LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$$Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
Pending home sales just hit their lowest level in history. In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year. This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales. To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010. They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown. All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994. The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
The economy is hanging tough in part because of the graceful adjustment of asset prices to Fed tightening. While overvalued stock, bond and real estate markets have bent, they have not broken. Americans remain wealthier than before the pandemic, and key to why they keep spending. $Zillow-C (Z.US)$$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$$Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
A record ~40% of all US homes currently don't have mortgages. At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is. Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases. In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash. As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse. We have an affordability crisis. $Zillow-C (Z.US)$$LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$$Macerich Co (MAC.US)$$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$
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The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month.
Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022.
These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak.
The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
The Rust Belt.
Hartford, Rochester, New Haven, and Milwaukee have all seen 8% appreciation since the bubble peaked in mid-2022.
Now who saw that coming?
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$ $Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA.US)$ $ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$
In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year.
This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales.
To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010.
They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown.
All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994.
The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is.
Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases.
In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash.
As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse.
We have an affordability crisis.
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$ $ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$
$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
Something needs to be done to improve housing affordability.
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$ $Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA.US)$
$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
Is a new bull market forming for housing prices?
Wow.
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This is the least affordable housing market in history.
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