0.07Open0.07Pre Close0 Volume80 Open Interest23.00Strike Price0.00Turnover35.44%IV14.04%PremiumJan 17, 2025Expiry Date0.00Intrinsic Value100Multiplier23DDays to Expiry0.07Extrinsic Value100Contract SizeAmericanOptions Type0.0871Delta0.0876Gamma289.00Leverage Ratio-0.0063Theta0.0011Rho25.16Eff Leverage0.0081Vega
Macerich Co Stock Discussion
The median asking rent price fell 2.1% year-over-year just after breaking above $2,000/month.
Meanwhile, housing starts skyrocketed by 14.8% in November to their highest level since May 2022.
These numbers have yet to account for the 100+ basis point drop in interest rates from their peak.
The "Fed pivot" is spreading into housing.
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The Rust Belt.
Hartford, Rochester, New Haven, and Milwaukee have all seen 8% appreciation since the bubble peaked in mid-2022.
Now who saw that coming?
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$ $Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA.US)$ $ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$
In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year.
This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales.
To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010.
They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in a lockdown.
All as mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994.
The housing market is coming to a complete halt...
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At first, this seems like great news, but it really just emphasizes how unaffordable this market is.
Currently, a record ~35% of housing market transactions are all cash purchases.
In other words, this market is becoming only affordable for those who are buying with cash.
As interest rates hit 20-year highs and home prices are up 30%+ since 2020, affordability is only getting worse.
We have an affordability crisis.
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$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
Something needs to be done to improve housing affordability.
$Zillow-C (Z.US)$ $LTC Properties Inc (LTC.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$ $Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA.US)$
$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR.US)$ $Macerich Co (MAC.US)$
Is a new bull market forming for housing prices?
Wow.
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2. 53% of homes require income of $125K+ to afford
3. Average 30Y mortgage at 7%
4. Mortgage demand lowest since 1995
5. Median rent payment hits $2000/mo
This is the least affordable housing market in history.
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