Trwils1230 : so 10 bagger or nah?

10baggerbamm OP Trwils1230 : no point it's not going up 10 fold I told you what I thought in the max would be but it doesn't make sense because interest rates going up normally hammers this sector this ETF today it traded up I can't explain it I didn't buy it and I said if you're going to do it you need to understand that it's not trading in a correlation that it normally does which means interest rates go down this Rally's interests go up this falls it's inverse to it doesn't make sense so I'm stepping aside

Smalltimeplayer : ty!

10baggerbamm : it's ironic because home builders are being accumulated now. you've got the 30-year mortgage at about seven and a quarter percent which is very prohibitive to new home builders and all of the companies in this portfolio this ETF came out and guided lower for this up and coming year because of interest rates.
but someone's buying them right now because they're trading higher so that tells me that institutions believe interest rates will come down and home building will resume at some point in time throughout the year

Stanlley OP 10baggerbamm : means wont bull recently

Ginvest : I would love to see this happen:  “and you're going to see some of them turn into Republicans”

10baggerbamm : this basket excluding Lowe's is geared towards housing construction and housing construction has 100% correlation to having interest rates trending lower and right now if you follow the 10-year Treasury that's what your 30-year mortgage rates are correlated to. so this basket will rally when we see a reversal of the 10-year right now it's like in a 470 plus minus I didn't look at it in the past couple hours if that 10-year Rally's back down to 4.20  this ETF is going to be taking off like a rocket ship on the way down. 
the home builders that are in this portfolio are the best in the world they have the greatest management they have managed through real estate cycles many a times in the past 30 40 years so these are not startup companies these are the best of the best but they are under pressure because people will not give up their 3% 30 year mortgage to move to another house when their new mortgage is going to be 7% or higher
that's why you need to see that 10-year interest rate drop and ideally enter the threes

TWIMO (151403908) : I heard and read it wasn’t good back in november and wanted to buy Put options. However, I didn’t know how to execute on duration and how low it could go. Was imagining 10-15% drop but didn’t know if the premium was okay or whether to buy 30 or 60 days….
I would like to get better at this as I reckon there will be such opportunities in 2025…