Gold Retakes $2,500 as Powell Signals Rate Cuts Imminent
Will gold continue to rise tonight after re-entering the $2500 mark? The industry is focusing on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, and gold is expected to continue to push higher.
① Once the annual meeting hints at a 50bp rate cut, the usd may continue to weaken, while gold and US stocks are expected to continue to rise; ② Based on the average performance of gold in the past ten years, gold prices tend to strengthen initially after the Jackson Hole meeting starts; ③ Recently, gold has been on a continuous uptrend, with a significant increase in COMEX net long positions and global gold ETF inflows providing support for gold prices.
UBS: The market is gradually adapting to the gold price of $2500, and there is still room for increased allocation in the future.
UBS Group expects that as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, the holding cost of gold will decrease, leading to further inflow of funds into gold ETFs. Seasonal demand will drive the physical demand for gold in China and India to rebound. In addition, central banks around the world are still buying gold, and emerging market central banks still have room to increase their shareholding of gold.
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Peter Hu Xifu: Golden Minerals Stocks Will Experience a "Bull Market" and Become a Hot Industry in the Next Ten Years.
With the surge in gold prices, economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff posted on the social media platform X, saying: "Golden industrial concept investors have overlooked an important point, which is that gold prices do not necessarily have to continue to rise."
Iran suddenly issued a "unexpected" retaliatory attack statement, the Fed minutes flew a "super-dovish" signal, gold and bitcoin sounded the horn of counterattack.
On Thursday (August 22nd), the US dollar index fell to 101.13, gold rebounded to $2513, and bitcoin surged above $60500.
The dollar is on the ground, gold is soaring, will the price reach $3000 next year? The RMB's surge suppressed domestic gold prices, and whether it will continue to appreciate remains to be seen.
The USD index once fell to a level below 101.3, close to the low point in half a year; while London gold was reported at $2,519 per ounce, which has risen by 22.14% since the beginning of the year. China's domestic gold has not reached a high point in sync, the analysis shows that this is due to the recent appreciation of the RMB being offset. If Trump takes office and imposes tariffs on China, expectations of further depreciation of the RMB and resurgence of carry trades may be revived.
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Gold prices continue to break records, and bullish sentiment remains high. Major banks predict that it may reach 3,000 next year.
Sabrin Chowdhury, the head of BMI commodity analysis, said "2024 is expected to be a year when gold sets multiple new highs", emphasizing the appeal of gold as a safe haven asset. Citigroup analysts predict a target price of $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, with an average price expected to be $2,550 in the fourth quarter of this year.
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① S&P, Nasdaq rose for 7 consecutive days, and the three major indexes of US stocks jointly recorded the largest weekly increase this year; ② The Fed's interest rate cut cycle is approaching, and spot gold has historically exceeded $2,500/ounce for the first time; ③ Officials in multiple countries expect that "Iran will postpone retaliation plans" and US Secretary of State flew to the Middle East on Saturday; ④ The EU has raised the monkeypox epidemic alert level, and multiple news have stimulated monkeypox concept stocks to continue rising.
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