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Trump's tariff plan angers many? US oil industry warns: rbob gasoline costs rise exacerbating consumer burden
① President-elect Trump of the usa threatens to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, causing concerns in the oil rbob gasoline industry; ② U.S. refineries highly rely on crude oil imports. The American Petroleum Institute warns that tariffs will raise refining costs and gasoline prices, exacerbating consumer burden; ③ Analysts believe the likelihood of Trump implementing the tariff plan is small.
IEA: Crude oil demand growth in 2024 may be halved, with a surplus of over one million barrels of crude oil expected every day next year.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.
If OPEC+ cancels the voluntary production cut plan, what will happen? Analysis: Oil prices may be halved next year.
1. The agreement of OPEC+ member countries to reduce daily production of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil has been postponed until the end of December; 2. Market observers state that if the organization does not reach a genuine agreement to control production in the future, oil prices may fall to $30 or $40 per barrel next year; 3. According to forecasts, the organization is more likely to gradually phase out production cuts early next year, rather than immediately withdrawing completely.
The outlook for oil prices is not good! On the eve of OPEC's production increase, usa oil giants are aggressively expanding production.
In the latest quarter, exxon mobil's oil & gas production increased by 24% year-on-year, chevron's production grew by 7%, while royal dutch shell and united kingdom BP increased by 4% and 2% respectively. According to Macquarie, if OPEC resumes production and with additional supply from Brazil and other places, the price of Brent crude oil may fall below $70.
Will Iran launch attacks against usa before the US election? The international oil market responds by rising again.
①According to sources, Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran will launch attacks on Israel through its proxies in Iraq, expected to occur before the US presidential election; ②The international oil market rose again under this news impact. After Thursday settlement, WTI futures prices rose more than 3%, Brent crude oil futures prices rose more than 2%.
Behind the sharp drop in oil prices, jpmorgan's "confusion": where did the sudden emergence of 45 million barrels of oil in the market come from?
JPMorgan believes that global crude oil inventories are underestimated as a key factor. The additional inventories may be stored in underground facilities, causing satellite monitoring companies to be unable to accurately track specific changes. Oil industry authority Ilia Bouchouev stated that when estimating crude oil supply and demand data, investors are like groping in the dark, making it difficult to obtain accurate results.