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IEA Monthly Report: Even if OPEC+ delays production increases, there will still be an oversupply of oil next year!
The IEA stated that if OPEC+ implements the production recovery plan starting in April, the Global market will face a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 by 90,000 barrels to 1.1 million barrels, mainly due to the economic stimulus measures recently announced by China.
Last night, china assets went "crazy."
Overnight, the nasdaq Golden Dragon china index rose over 8.5%, marking the best single-day performance since the end of September. Popular Chinese concept etfs surged collectively: the largest MCHI increased by 7.7%, the FXI, which tracks large Chinese companies in the Hong Kong stock market, rose over 8%, and the only major Chinese concept etf tracking the A-share market, ASHR, gained nearly 7%. The most insane increase came from the three times leveraged FTSE China, YINN, which soared 24% overnight and continued to rise over 2% after hours.
Fuel cell energy and hydrogen internal combustion engines are advancing in parallel, with the application of hydrogen energy accelerating on the end-user side due to frequent bullish policies.
① The CA6HV3 hydrogen engine, independently developed by faw jiefang group, has been released as the first domestic heavy-duty commercial vehicle hydrogen engine with direct injection. ② At this stage, many hydrogen internal combustion engine products still have shortcomings such as "low thermal efficiency."
Trump's tariff plan angers many? US oil industry warns: rbob gasoline costs rise exacerbating consumer burden
① President-elect Trump of the usa threatens to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, causing concerns in the oil rbob gasoline industry; ② U.S. refineries highly rely on crude oil imports. The American Petroleum Institute warns that tariffs will raise refining costs and gasoline prices, exacerbating consumer burden; ③ Analysts believe the likelihood of Trump implementing the tariff plan is small.
IEA: Crude oil demand growth in 2024 may be halved, with a surplus of over one million barrels of crude oil expected every day next year.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.
If OPEC+ cancels the voluntary production cut plan, what will happen? Analysis: Oil prices may be halved next year.
1. The agreement of OPEC+ member countries to reduce daily production of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil has been postponed until the end of December; 2. Market observers state that if the organization does not reach a genuine agreement to control production in the future, oil prices may fall to $30 or $40 per barrel next year; 3. According to forecasts, the organization is more likely to gradually phase out production cuts early next year, rather than immediately withdrawing completely.