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Macquarie: The global oil market is expected to face "severe oversupply" by 2025.
According to the McKinsey supply and demand equilibrium forecast, the oil market will face a serious supply surplus in the next five quarters, triggering a situation similar to a 'price war', and oil prices may fall to around $50 per barrel.
Oil Price to Average $60 in 2025, Citigroup Says
Worse than the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic! Illustration: To what extent has the oil market collapsed?
① As global benchmark Brent crude oil fell below $70, oil prices have reached their lowest level since December 2021; ② In fact, what is even more alarming to market participants than the sharp decline in prices may be the popularity of the crude oil market.
Did oil prices plunge due to oversupply? Senior commodity analyst: The market is "scared".
①Currie said at the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore that the market's concerns about oversupply were "completely exaggerated," and "in terms of oil, this year's production in the USA remained stable"; ②"The key issue is that the market has seriously overestimated the extent of oil supply glut, and the record short positions reflect this... I have never seen this situation before."
A storm is quietly brewing, and emerging markets are starting a frenzy of bond issuance.
Borrowers in developing countries are strengthening their defenses against fluctuations.
It is reported that OPEC+ has agreed to suspend production increases, and US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low point in January, causing oil prices to rise and then fall back.
The analysis points out that although the crude oil inventory in the USA has plummeted, there is a risk of the Cushing inventory bottoming out, and OPEC+ has decided to postpone the production increase by two months, but the oil price rebound is weak because the bears are currently dominant.