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Trump's tariff plan angers many? US oil industry warns: rbob gasoline costs rise exacerbating consumer burden
① President-elect Trump of the usa threatens to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, causing concerns in the oil rbob gasoline industry; ② U.S. refineries highly rely on crude oil imports. The American Petroleum Institute warns that tariffs will raise refining costs and gasoline prices, exacerbating consumer burden; ③ Analysts believe the likelihood of Trump implementing the tariff plan is small.
IEA: Crude oil demand growth in 2024 may be halved, with a surplus of over one million barrels of crude oil expected every day next year.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.
If OPEC+ cancels the voluntary production cut plan, what will happen? Analysis: Oil prices may be halved next year.
1. The agreement of OPEC+ member countries to reduce daily production of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil has been postponed until the end of December; 2. Market observers state that if the organization does not reach a genuine agreement to control production in the future, oil prices may fall to $30 or $40 per barrel next year; 3. According to forecasts, the organization is more likely to gradually phase out production cuts early next year, rather than immediately withdrawing completely.
The outlook for oil prices is not good! On the eve of OPEC's production increase, usa oil giants are aggressively expanding production.
In the latest quarter, exxon mobil's oil & gas production increased by 24% year-on-year, chevron's production grew by 7%, while royal dutch shell and united kingdom BP increased by 4% and 2% respectively. According to Macquarie, if OPEC resumes production and with additional supply from Brazil and other places, the price of Brent crude oil may fall below $70.
Will Iran launch attacks against usa before the US election? The international oil market responds by rising again.
①According to sources, Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran will launch attacks on Israel through its proxies in Iraq, expected to occur before the US presidential election; ②The international oil market rose again under this news impact. After Thursday settlement, WTI futures prices rose more than 3%, Brent crude oil futures prices rose more than 2%.
Behind the sharp drop in oil prices, jpmorgan's "confusion": where did the sudden emergence of 45 million barrels of oil in the market come from?
JPMorgan believes that global crude oil inventories are underestimated as a key factor. The additional inventories may be stored in underground facilities, causing satellite monitoring companies to be unable to accurately track specific changes. Oil industry authority Ilia Bouchouev stated that when estimating crude oil supply and demand data, investors are like groping in the dark, making it difficult to obtain accurate results.
International oil prices plummeted sharply in the short term! Hong Kong petroleum stocks weakened against the trend, with the three major oil companies falling more than 2%.
①International oil prices plummeted in the short term, how is the medium to long-term market outlook? ②Hong Kong petroleum stocks weakened against the trend, what risks should be particularly noted?
Oil price decline dragging down, Sinopec's Q3 net profit plummeted by 52.1% year-on-year, CNOOC's revenue declined. | Financial Report Insights
Sinopec's net income in the third quarter dropped significantly, greatly reducing inventory income year-on-year due to the rapid decline in oil prices, as well as a slight narrowing of refining product gross profit; CNOOC's revenue declined year-on-year, but net production and net income increased significantly year-on-year, with significant cost advantages.
Middle East oil production is recovering, and Saudi Arabia's economic growth rate is expected to soar in 2025.
①According to a survey, economists generally believe that Saudi Arabia's economic growth will accelerate in 2025 benefiting from the increase in oil production; ② The survey expects Saudi Arabia's economy to grow by 4.4% in 2025, higher than the expected 1.3% this year, the fastest growth rate in three years; ③ In addition, the economic growth of other GCC member countries will also be strong, with the UAE becoming the fastest-growing country in the region.
US stocks rose for the sixth consecutive week, crude oil plummeted, gold and silver shone | Overseas major asset weekly report
Spot gold hit record highs twice this week, with a total weekly increase of about 2.4%, while silver rose about 7% to nearly a twelve-year high for the week. With the USA pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, the crude oil market showed a weak performance this week. The dollar fell from an 11-week high.
Gavin Newsom Approves New Law to Tackle Gas Prices, Says Oil Industry Raising Prices To 'Scare Voters' Into Supporting Trump
Reverse, reverse again and reverse again! What happened to the oil price roller coaster ride?
Affected by factors such as OPEC's plan to increase supply in December, the Brent crude oil price fell from over $90 in April to slightly below $70 in mid-September. Subsequently, following China's central bank's announcement of a "policy gift package" and intensified turmoil in the Middle East, oil prices reversed course with a weekly increase of over 9%. On Tuesday, China's National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference, but as the tensions in the Middle East did not escalate as expected, oil prices reversed again with a sharp 5% drop on Tuesday.
HSBC: In 2024, the issuance of bonds in EMEA emerging markets is expected to reach a record high.
jpmorgan expects that although the November US presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East may cause market volatility, this year the bond issuance volume in the emerging markets of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) will reach a record high.
S&P Global: Under the escalation of the Middle East situation, the global economy is facing an unprecedented 'dangerous period.'
S&P Global Vice Chairman and energy expert Daniel Yergin stated on Tuesday that due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, the global economy is entering an unprecedented "dangerous period." Yergin pointed out that he expects Israel's retaliation to be not just a replay of April, but to be "more intense."
The Middle East conflict combined with a hurricane approaching, Brent crude oil rose above $80 for the first time in a month, with WTI crude oil temporarily rising over 4%.
Over the weekend until Monday, Israel was successively attacked by missiles from Lebanon and Hamas. Hurricane Milton rapidly escalated into a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, threatening local fuel supplies. The meteorological department warned that the Tampa area in Florida will face the most severe storm in over a century.
Careful of soaring oil prices? Goldman Sachs warns: the oil market is completely unprepared for escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Goldman Sachs analyst Lindsay Matcham stated that further escalation of the conflict may have a significant impact on the market, especially if the conflict involves the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could likely lead to a surge in local oil prices; Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas, in another report, highlighted four short-term positive drivers in the crude oil market - mentioning the Middle East trend.
OPEC's 2024 global oil outlook: bullish on the oil market prospects, no demand peak in the short term.
①OPEC believes that some countries and companies may resist overly aggressive clean energy goals, in addition, some global auto manufacturers have also adjusted their electrification goals, reducing investment in electric vehicles; ②OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 0.1189 billion barrels per day by 2045.
Global interest rate cuts combined with escalating geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rebounding from a three-year low.
Some analysts believe that as the impact of interest rate cuts wanes, the oil market may refocus on the issue of weak demand, leading to crude oil prices facing downward pressure again.
Macquarie: The global oil market is expected to face "severe oversupply" by 2025.
According to the McKinsey supply and demand equilibrium forecast, the oil market will face a serious supply surplus in the next five quarters, triggering a situation similar to a 'price war', and oil prices may fall to around $50 per barrel.
Oil Price to Average $60 in 2025, Citigroup Says