John Wells PhD Math : I think the problem with your portfolio performance is your model for calculating fair value of the stocks.  I just looked at MED and based on a dividend discount method, I calculate the fair value to be zero.  They are expecting to lose money, and I don’t see any prospect for that changing, which means that it has some assets, but they’re just going to slowly burn through the cash until there’s nothing left.  I think you would be better served with VTI or VOO, the Vanguard total market ETF or the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.  With either of those at least you will match the market performance, which would put you substantially ahead of where you are.

CarilonCapital OP John Wells PhD Math : My valuation of $Medifast (MED.US)$  in this and other vids were done when the company was still profitable and had high FCF. Based on recent financials it’s clear that the company’s price collapse was not justified. I released this video a year ago. Estimating fair value still requires projecting fcf and discounting.