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Wall Street Today: Market Quaking With Anticipation, and Nvidia Delivers Beat
Kevin Travers16:57 ET
'Boring Is Back' With Defensive Sectors Leading the Pack on the S&P 500
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Live Stock News: Market Climbs Back From Tech Pit, Awaits Prodigal Semi Son to Report
Kevin Travers11:15 ET
These Stock-market Sectors Are Dominating the S&P 500 so Far This Year as Investors Play Defense
MarketWatchFeb 25 22:52 ET
Wall Street Today: All Fun and Games Until Consumers Get Uneasy
Kevin TraversFeb 25 16:13 ET
Express News | Ukraine Agrees to U.S. Mineral Deal: Financial Times
Moomoo 24/7Feb 25 14:56 ET

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74425369

8 hours ago

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ surged to a record 5,969.34 last Friday, capping off a remarkable 25.2% gain for 2024. Yet, a surprising paradox emerges: investor sentiment is at its weakest in years. According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), the bull-bear spread has dropped to -15.3%, its lowest level since March 2022. Only 25.7% of retail investors are bullish, while 41% remain bearish—a stark contrast to the market's soaring performance.
This disconnect between market hig...

PCE data preview: Can markets reach an emotional turning point?

The Family Guy

Feb 20 07:44

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 🚨🚨
Market Impact Analysis – February 15th Jobless Claims Report
Overall Market Direction
The market reaction to this report will likely be neutral to slightly negative in the short term. Here’s why:
1. Jobless Claims Slightly Above Expectations
• Initial claims rose to 219K vs. expectations of 215K (+4K miss).
• Continuing claims were 1.869M, nearly matching the expected 1.870M.
• While the labor market remains strong, this small miss could indicate mild softening, which ...

5

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The Family Guy OP : Success Rate of the Market Prediction vs. Actual Performance
To assess the accuracy of the prediction, let’s break it down into key components:
1. Overall Market Direction
• Prediction: Neutral to slightly negative market reaction.
• Actual: The market declined (S&P 500 -0.4%, Dow -1%, Nasdaq -0.5%).
• Accuracy: Correct (Prediction aligned with actual market movement.)
2. Sector & Stock Impact Analysis
Financials (Banks & Lenders)
• Prediction: Negative impact due to no imminent Fed rate cuts.
• Actual: Financials declined (XLF -1.56%, JPM -4.47%, BAC -1.54%).
• Accuracy: Correct (The sector performed as expected.)
Cyclical Consumer Stocks (Retail, Travel, Housing)
• Prediction: Weakness in consumer spending could impact retail stocks.
• Actual: Walmart fell 6.5%, dragging down the retail sector.
• Accuracy: Correct (Retail stocks saw significant declines.)
Defensive Sectors (Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare)
• Prediction: A rise in jobless claims could push investors toward defensive sectors.
• Actual: Utilities and consumer staples slightly gained (XLU +0.02%, PG +0.45%).
• Accuracy: Correct (Defensive stocks held up.)
Tech & Growth Stocks
• Prediction: A moderate benefit if rate-cut expectations rise.
• Actual: Tech stocks experienced minor declines (XLK -0.30%, MSFT -0.33%, AMZN -1.67%).
• Accuracy: Partially Correct (Tech stocks didn’t rise but saw only slight losses instead of strong outperformance.)
Final Success Rate Calculation
Prediction Category Outcome Result
Overall Market Direction Correct 100%
Financials Sector Impact Correct 100%
Cyclical Consumer Stocks Impact Correct 100%
Defensive Stocks Impact Correct 100%
Tech Stocks Impact Partially Correct 50%
Final Accuracy Score:
• 4.5/5 Correct Predictions (90% Accuracy).
Conclusion
The market prediction was highly accurate (90% success rate). The primary miss was the expectation that tech stocks might benefit from increased rate-cut hopes, whereas they experienced slight losses instead. Otherwise, the prediction correctly anticipated the overall market trend and sectoral impacts.
LIKE & FOLLOW FOR MORE OF THIS PRE-MARKET ANALYSIS!

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