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SymbolStock Name
PriceChg% ChgVolumeTurnoverOpenPre CloseHighLowMarket CapFloat CapSharesShs Float5D % Chg10D % Chg20D % Chg60D % Chg120D % Chg250D % Chg% Year-to-dateDiv YieldTTMTurnover RatioP/E (TTM)P/E (Static)AmplitudeIndustry
WatchlistPaper Trade
The Family Guy OP : Success Rate of the Market Prediction vs. Actual Performance
Correct (Prediction aligned with actual market movement.)
Correct (The sector performed as expected.)
Correct (Retail stocks saw significant declines.)
Correct (Defensive stocks held up.)
Partially Correct (Tech stocks didn’t rise but saw only slight losses instead of strong outperformance.)
100%
100%
100%
100%
50%
To assess the accuracy of the prediction, let’s break it down into key components:
1. Overall Market Direction
• Prediction: Neutral to slightly negative market reaction.
• Actual: The market declined (S&P 500 -0.4%, Dow -1%, Nasdaq -0.5%).
• Accuracy:
2. Sector & Stock Impact Analysis
Financials (Banks & Lenders)
• Prediction: Negative impact due to no imminent Fed rate cuts.
• Actual: Financials declined (XLF -1.56%, JPM -4.47%, BAC -1.54%).
• Accuracy:
Cyclical Consumer Stocks (Retail, Travel, Housing)
• Prediction: Weakness in consumer spending could impact retail stocks.
• Actual: Walmart fell 6.5%, dragging down the retail sector.
• Accuracy:
Defensive Sectors (Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare)
• Prediction: A rise in jobless claims could push investors toward defensive sectors.
• Actual: Utilities and consumer staples slightly gained (XLU +0.02%, PG +0.45%).
• Accuracy:
Tech & Growth Stocks
• Prediction: A moderate benefit if rate-cut expectations rise.
• Actual: Tech stocks experienced minor declines (XLK -0.30%, MSFT -0.33%, AMZN -1.67%).
• Accuracy:
Final Success Rate Calculation
Prediction Category Outcome Result
Overall Market Direction Correct
Financials Sector Impact Correct
Cyclical Consumer Stocks Impact Correct
Defensive Stocks Impact Correct
Tech Stocks Impact Partially Correct
Final Accuracy Score:
• 4.5/5 Correct Predictions (90% Accuracy).
Conclusion
The market prediction was highly accurate (90% success rate). The primary miss was the expectation that tech stocks might benefit from increased rate-cut hopes, whereas they experienced slight losses instead. Otherwise, the prediction correctly anticipated the overall market trend and sectoral impacts.
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