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Will July Retail Sales Confirm a Soft Landing -- or Fuel Recession Fears?
US inflation has cooled for four consecutive months in July, and employment data has become the "roadblock" to the last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
In July, the inflation rate in the USA has dropped for the fourth consecutive month, which gives the Federal Reserve the possibility to decrease interest rates next month.
Goldman Sachs: The US CPI in July is of great concern, but more sensitive to retail sales and jobless claims data this week.
Goldman Sachs Senior Market Consultant Dom Wilson said on Tuesday that investors are preparing for the release of US CPI data for July on Wednesday, but as concerns about economic growth intensify, investors will also remain sensitive to other data this week.
A major shift in global capital funding! The proportion of stock allocation has dropped sharply, and the era of 'cash is king' is coming.
Bank of America's global fund manager survey released on Tuesday showed that institutional investors have increased their allocation to cash assets since August, as global economic growth expectations hit an eight-month low and U.S. recession expectations rose.
Will the rebound of the US stock market be inevitably rocky with the arrival of "Super Data Week"?
It is now market consensus that inflation is declining. This week's retail and first application data may be more important than PPI and CPI. "From now on, the data will tell us about the US economy: whether it is gradually slowing down or plummeting abruptly."
The most accurate analyst on Wall Street: It's no longer about “to cut or not to cut”, or “when to cut”, but rather “whether cutting interest rates is still effective”.
According to Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist at Bank of America, significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are necessary to prevent a recession. If certain key indicators are breached, the Wall Street narrative will shift from a soft landing to a hard landing. Hartnett recommends focusing on the US NFIB Small Business Confidence data, which will be released on Tuesday.
HYGWE : should we worry a lower cpi could signal economic slowdown tho not yet recession but would need more action from over cautious and behind the curve FED ... too little too late FED to rescue from recession
Ultratechman HYGWE : what is worrying is this one of those emotions again. they've been talking about a recession since covid.
Moomoo Research OP HYGWE : What you said is very reasonable. If there is a recession, the investment opportunities of many investment types will decline, and bonds will be a good choice.