Is there any possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut? Tonight, the night of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will determine everything!
Last Friday's US non-farm night has made the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month the mainstream in the current market. Whether the tilted expectation of an interest rate cut will continue until the Fed's interest rate decision day next week remains to be seen. Tonight could be the last "decisive moment"...
US stocks rebounded, shocking Wall Street! This week's focus will shift to the "Hart's first debate" and CPI data.
①After last week's sharp drop in US stocks triggered by economic concerns, a new wave of bottom-buying stimulated a rebound in the stock market on Monday; ②Looking ahead to this week, traders are closely watching the US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday, in search of clues on the scale of the Fed's interest rate cuts; ③In addition, the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday night also attracted the attention of many industry insiders.
Is the 'political honeymoon period' over? Latest polls: Harris' support rate has stagnated, lagging behind Trump.
1. According to a poll released by the new york times and Siena College on September 8, Trump leads Harris by a slight margin of 48% to 47%; 2. This is the first time in nearly a month that Trump has led Harris in a mainstream poll.
Getting attention! The options market is currently focused on the Fed's interest rate cut.
The fiercely competitive presidential election has gradually faded from the market's view, and investors' attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18th.
The suspense of the Fed's interest rate cut in September may have to wait until the last moment to be revealed! The U.S. stock market wants to see a 25 basis point cut.
The latest employment data did not resolve the market's debate over the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September; however, the employment report did intensify concerns about a cooling labor market.
usa Qualcomm inflation whistle-blower: non-farm report is not particularly bad, 50% probability of a 25/50 basis point rate cut on September.
Summers said that the August non-farm employment report in the United States was not particularly bad. The numbers in the non-farm report definitely didn't show any obvious weakness, but if there are concerns about the recent trend in statistics, they definitely did not provide evidence of a healthy economy.
HYGWE : should we worry a lower cpi could signal economic slowdown tho not yet recession but would need more action from over cautious and behind the curve FED ... too little too late FED to rescue from recession
Ultratech HYGWE : what is worrying is this one of those emotions again. they've been talking about a recession since covid.
Moomoo Research OP HYGWE : What you said is very reasonable. If there is a recession, the investment opportunities of many investment types will decline, and bonds will be a good choice.