Fed's Kugler Says She Supports More Rate Cuts If Inflation Recedes
Just two days! The expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut was shattered as the 10-year US Treasury yield returned above 4%.
1. On Monday this week, the sharp drop in the US Treasury market further intensified, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond returned above the 4% level, reaching its highest level since August; 2. Due to the unexpectedly strong US employment report announced last Friday, traders are forced to reevaluate their predictions for the outlook of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The market is refocusing on usa CPI! It is crucial whether the Federal Reserve will press the "pause button" on interest rate cuts.
If the September usa CPI data is very strong, the rate cut in November will become "uncertain".
10/8 [Strength and Weakness Analysis]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: Nikkei Average is rising (39,332.74, +697.12), US crude oil futures are rising (77.14, +2.76), Expectation of easing inflation in the US, active share buybacks, request from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for enhancing corporate value. Bearish factors: NY Dow is falling (41,954.24, -398.51), Nasdaq Composite Index is falling (17,923.90, -213.94), $1 = 148.00-10 yen, Chicago Nikkei futures are falling (38,915, Osaka comparison -455).
Goldman Sachs released three heavyweight research reports over the weekend: downgrading the forecast for US recession, expecting the Chinese stock market to rise by another 15% to 20%.
Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team believes that the US large cap stocks can rise by another 4.3% to 6000 points by the end of the year, as the possibility of a US recession has decreased, allowing the Federal Reserve to only reduce interest rates by 25 basis points each time. Their AP strategic team has upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "shareholding" and is bullish on the potential boost to valuation from large-scale stimulus measures.
US stocks collectively fell by about 1%, with Chinese concept stocks rebounding in a V-shape, US bond yields rising above 4%, and oil prices rising by nearly 4%.
USA stocks and bonds both fell, with the Dow down 400 points, Tesla down 3.7%, Nvidia up over 2%, Chinese concept stocks fell nearly 3% before closing higher, Alibaba and Tencent ADRs rose 2.6%, Li Auto Inc. rose over 4%. The two-year US treasury yield rose nearly 10 basis points, breaking above 4% for the first time since August for both the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields, with the US dollar hovering at a seven-week high since August 16. Brent crude oil closed above $80, reaching a six-week high along with WTI oil climbing above $77. Silver briefly fell more than 2.4%.
