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USA's July PCE inflation rose moderately, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
①In July, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with an expected 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, in line with expectations. ② The impact of this report may be insignificant, but it does confirm what Fed Chairman Powell said, with the focus potentially being on employment trends, as people believe that the inflation trend may continue towards the 2% target.
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50 basis points to start an interest rate cut cycle? The Federal Reserve has never done this before.
Deutsche Bank believes that if the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may choose to gradually reduce interest rates by 25 basis points, and will not reduce interest rates sharply all at once.
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Fed's Powell: Inflation still poses upside risks, but supports a 25 basis point rate cut next month.
①Baljan pointed out that he tends to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, gradually adjusting policies by observing market and economic reactions; ②The practice of "lower hiring, lower firing" currently adopted by American companies is unlikely to continue.
