Manufacturing data is constantly bringing bad news, once again sparking market concerns about the economic outlook in the USA.
① The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, which means that manufacturing economic activity has been cooling down for five months in a row; ② S&P Global's August Manufacturing PMI was revised down from 48 to 47.9, originally expected to be adjusted to 48.1. In July, this number was 49.6.
Will tonight's ISM manufacturing index set the tone for global markets this week?
As the first important economic indicator of the week announced, the ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to be in contraction range for the fifth consecutive month. Bank of America believes that if the ISM Manufacturing Index is above 49, it may push the 30-year US bond yield to above 4.3%.
The entire market focuses on non-farm, be careful of the 'backfire' of inflation.
Deutsche Bank believes that considering the global increase in money supply growth, sticky inflation, geopolitical risks, and the need for greater fiscal stimulus for higher post-pandemic real yields, it is still too early to dismiss inflation risks.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is getting closer, and asset management giants are restructuring their positions and increasing their bets on emerging market assets.
Several of the top-performing emerging market bond management companies are repositioning their portfolios, as the highly anticipated interest rate cuts in the United States in decades have brought new momentum to asset classes that have suffered nearly $15 billion in outflows this year.
Weekly U.S. Economic Data Roundup: Year-ahead Inflation Expectations at 2020 Levels
USA's July PCE inflation rose moderately, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
①In July, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with an expected 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, in line with expectations. ② The impact of this report may be insignificant, but it does confirm what Fed Chairman Powell said, with the focus potentially being on employment trends, as people believe that the inflation trend may continue towards the 2% target.
