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Under the tide of Fed rate cuts, U.S. stocks are bullish to lead the way for the whole year, while U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar are being neglected!
With the continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, most respondents predict that the performance of the US stock market for the remaining time this year will surpass the government and corporate bonds market.
U.S. Treasury Liquidity Shifts to Month-end as Passive Funds Dominate: NY Fed Research
Guosen Securities: Will the Fed "stabilize the dollar" or "stabilize US bonds"? Global funds' views on US assets may change.
Guosen Securities stated that looking ahead, the Fed's decision-making may continue to be "tightening", and after a period of "stabilizing US bonds", it is not ruled out that "stabilizing the US dollar" may once again pressure the Fed to adjust its policy direction. These factors may influence the global perception of US assets.
SA Sentiment: What's the Best Way to Address America's $35T Debt Load?
Why did long-term U.S. Treasury rates rise despite the interest rate cuts? | Moomoo Research
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by another 50 basis points in November? The 2-year US bond yield hits a two-year low.
1. The US two-year Treasury bond yield fell further to its lowest level in over two years during the Asian session on Wednesday; 2. An indicator measuring consumer confidence slipped overnight on Tuesday, further enhancing expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting.
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Georgehx : What do you mean?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : JP Morgan and at least one other major bank are selling off while Treasury yields are falling. That tends to be a strong sign of flight to safety.
Georgehx Derpy Trades OP : You’ve got a valid point but I’m holding mainly bonds atm bcz of the volatility in market rn & bonds tend to rise when interest rates fall so doesn’t really matter 25 or 50 basis points, bonds esp longer ones will do well am I right to say that?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : The bond market is very complex, and so that is a very difficult question to answer. In most scenarios bonds will rally when or even in anticipation of rate cuts, but if there were ever a black swan event in which the Fed had to monetize our government's debt, long-term interest rates would likely skyrocket and bonds would depreciate quickly.