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"Global asset pricing anchor" screams! Are US bond bears sounding the assembly call?
①With the 10-year US Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," returning to above the 4% level this week; ②More and more traders are beginning to worry that the US Treasury market will further give back earlier gains this year; ③Because they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a slower pace before the end of the year.
Bridgewater founder Dalio: The Fed's sharp interest rate cuts are by no means normal. US debt has become a "high-risk investment".
Ray Dalio stated that US Treasury bonds have become a lackluster investment.
Treasury Yields Settle Mixed as Fed Repricing Fizzles -- Market Talk
US10Y Is Back Above 4% for the First Time in Over 2-months, so What's Next?
Just two days! The expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut was shattered as the 10-year US Treasury yield returned above 4%.
1. On Monday this week, the sharp drop in the US Treasury market further intensified, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond returned above the 4% level, reaching its highest level since August; 2. Due to the unexpectedly strong US employment report announced last Friday, traders are forced to reevaluate their predictions for the outlook of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
U.S. Hiring Might Be Cooler Than It Seems
Georgehx : What do you mean?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : JP Morgan and at least one other major bank are selling off while Treasury yields are falling. That tends to be a strong sign of flight to safety.
Georgehx Derpy Trades OP : You’ve got a valid point but I’m holding mainly bonds atm bcz of the volatility in market rn & bonds tend to rise when interest rates fall so doesn’t really matter 25 or 50 basis points, bonds esp longer ones will do well am I right to say that?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : The bond market is very complex, and so that is a very difficult question to answer. In most scenarios bonds will rally when or even in anticipation of rate cuts, but if there were ever a black swan event in which the Fed had to monetize our government's debt, long-term interest rates would likely skyrocket and bonds would depreciate quickly.