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U.S. Two-30-Year Treasury Yield Spread Has Room to Widen -- Market Talk
"Trump trade" remains popular, but how much longer can it last.
Stocks, bonds, and other assets are already expensive relative to historical levels. Trump's trade protectionism policy may lead to a resurgence of inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time. In addition, the US economy is facing continuously expanding fiscal deficits and a labor market that is already showing signs of fatigue, which could put pressure on the economic growth outlook.
Wall Street comments on CPI: A rate cut next month is basically certain, but the pace of rate cuts next year may slow down due to Trump's policies.
Wall Street analysts say that CPI data in line with expectations can almost guarantee that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, but the market still needs to assess the impact of inflation caused by the next US president, Trump, which may lead to the Federal Reserve slowing down its rate cuts next year.
Treasury Yields Slip After CPI Data -- WSJ
USA Stock Market Preview | All three equity index futures fell together, with the US October CPI released tonight.
On November 13th (Wednesday) pre-market trading, the three major US equity index futures all fell.
U.S. Treasury Curve Has Room to Steepen -- Market Talk
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Georgehx : What do you mean?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : JP Morgan and at least one other major bank are selling off while Treasury yields are falling. That tends to be a strong sign of flight to safety.
Georgehx Derpy Trades OP : You’ve got a valid point but I’m holding mainly bonds atm bcz of the volatility in market rn & bonds tend to rise when interest rates fall so doesn’t really matter 25 or 50 basis points, bonds esp longer ones will do well am I right to say that?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : The bond market is very complex, and so that is a very difficult question to answer. In most scenarios bonds will rally when or even in anticipation of rate cuts, but if there were ever a black swan event in which the Fed had to monetize our government's debt, long-term interest rates would likely skyrocket and bonds would depreciate quickly.