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Hong Kong stocks surged | Mainland real estate stocks collectively opened higher, existing home loan interest rate cuts clarified, and new real estate policies introduced in three major first-tier cities.
Mainland real estate stocks opened collectively high, China Vanke (02202) rose by 14.99%, to 7.67 Hong Kong dollars; Longfor Group (00960) rose by 14.87%, to 15.76 Hong Kong dollars; Sino-Ocean GP (03377) rose by 14.81%, to 0.31 Hong Kong dollars.
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Kerui: Real estate sets the tone for 'stabilizing and rebounding.'
The Central Political Bureau meeting of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, implement a substantial interest rate cut, and adjust down housing transaction taxes and fees. In this round, various types of taxes and fees related to housing transactions such as deed tax, value-added tax, personal income tax, etc. are reduced or exempted to promote housing consumption. For example, individuals purchasing the only residence are exempt from deed tax, while families purchasing the second or large-area improvement housing are eligible for a partial deed tax reduction. Additionally, measures such as shortening the duration of value-added tax and personal income tax exemption for housing transactions.
Hong Kong stock market concept tracking | Existing home loan interest rate cut imminent, real estate sector accelerates stabilization and valuation repair (with concept stocks)
Industry insiders predict that the specific plan for lowering the interest rates on existing housing loans is unlikely to be introduced before the "National Day" holiday.
Middle Finger Research Institute: With the implementation of multiple bullish policies by the central bank, what impact will it have on the real estate market?
Overall, this time the central bank released multiple bullish news, which will have a positive impact on the macroeconomy and the real estate market. Various measures are being implemented together, with the hope of stabilizing housing prices and accelerating the bottoming out of the real estate market.
Expected to benefit 0.15 billion people, the new round of reduction in existing home loan interest rates is expected to come. Industry insiders: there is also a significant downward space for future newly issued housing loan interest rates.
①The most direct positive effect of lowering the interest rate for existing housing loans is to reduce the debt pressure of existing housing loan holders, lower the demand for early repayment, and may encourage these residents to increase investment or consumer spending in other areas. ②At the same time, the new policy also provides more preferential policies for homebuyers, hoping to lower the threshold for home purchase, reduce the cost of home purchase, and better meet the needs of rigid and improved housing.
How do you view the current real estate crediting support policies? Industry insiders: the significant differentiation characteristics are very prominent, and there is still a need to promote cross-bank mortgage conversions.
The central bank's intention is very clear, that is, to provide targeted and differentiated credit support policies for different groups of people. The reduction in down payment ratio is mainly aimed at middle-income homebuyers, while the policy of refinancing for affordable housing is mainly targeted at low-income individuals. Despite previous market voices suggesting that lowering existing home mortgage loans and changing mortgage types violates the spirit of contracts, from the current economic situation, such practices can reduce economic pressure on residents and indeed have the necessary implementation.
Existing home loan interest rates are about to be lowered by 50 basis points! Industry insiders: It can effectively curb the trend of early repayment, and deposit interest rates will be further reduced under the pressure of interest rate differentials.
1. The central bank announced that it will guide commercial banks to reduce existing mortgage rates to be close to the rates of new mortgages, with an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. 2. It is expected that the loan prime rate (LPR) and deposit rates will symmetrically decrease.
Major announcements on the real estate market and stock market were made by one line, one bureau, and one association.
1. The central bank: reduce the reserve requirement ratio, lower the interest rate on existing housing loans; establish a special refinancing facility to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies. 2. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: strengthen the core tier-one capital of 6 large commercial banks; reveal three optimization policies for renewing loans for small and micro enterprises. 3. China Securities Regulatory Commission: will issue opinions to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions; support sovereign wealth funds to increase their shareholding in the capital markets.
Multiple bullish stimuli boost the strong performance of the real estate sector, with r&f properties surging over 10%.
How do institutions view reducing the interest rates and down payment ratios for existing housing loans? How does the market view the cancellation of the standard for ordinary residential housing?
The Fed rate cut effect: The darkest period has passed, will the real estate sector usher in a valuation recovery opportunity?
The real estate sector hit bottom and rebounded, with the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points at its September monetary policy meeting, exceeding market expectations. The Hong Kong stock market's real estate sector continued to rise.
UBS Group: It is expected that the remaining time of the year, Hong Kong property prices will generally stabilize or slightly rebound.
UBS Group issued a research report stating that the USA has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Consequently, UBS Group announced that it will follow suit and decrease the best rate for Hong Kong dollars by 25 basis points, unexpectedly becoming a "Mid-Autumn Festival gift" to the Hong Kong property market and bringing bullish news. The interest rate for new residential mortgages will be lowered from 4.125% to 3.88%, which will help narrow the negative interest rate gap with rental return on investment.
After the Fed cuts interest rates, multiple real estate stocks have strengthened. Will mortgage rates be further lowered?
① Influenced by the bullish factor of the Fed's interest rate cut, today's real estate stocks including Vanke, Jindi, Sunac, Shimao Group, and Jingfa International are strong; ② "The Fed's interest rate cut is expected to accelerate the implementation of China's reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, which will help further reduce the financing cost of enterprises. For the real estate market, the 5-year LPR is expected to be further reduced, and the cost of home purchase for residents may also decline."
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Is real estate inventory declining according to the Zhongzhi Institute?
According to a report by the China Index Academy, the inventory clearance cycle is dynamic and is influenced by both the inventory size and the market sales speed. With a significant reduction in land supply, the market is entering a stage of spontaneous inventory clearance. However, the current real estate sales still face adjustment pressure, and the pace of inventory clearance relying solely on market forces is relatively slow. Therefore, policy support is still needed.
Shui On Land (00272) fell by 31.80%, with a current price of 0.560 yuan, hitting a new 52-week low.
As of 11:46, Shui On Land (00272) fell by 31.80% compared to the previous closing price, now at 0.560 yuan, hitting a 52-week low; volume of 6.0426 million shares, with a turnover of 3.3851 million Hong Kong dollars.
tianfeng securities: What is the outlook for the adjustment of existing home loan interest rates?
Tianfeng Securities stated that, considering the latest mortgage policy and interest rate changes this year, there is indeed a possibility of reducing the interest rates on existing home loans. Further considering the actual impact of reducing the interest rates on existing home loans in 2023, it is expected to have a limited negative impact on the bond market.
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