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10baggerbamm : I didn't read your analysis I would only say to you that everything rides on two things
number one when will president Trump impose further restrictions limitations on who chip companies which means Nvidia at the number one top of the list AMD in the top five who they can sell to. it's 100% guaranteed coming because president Trump said so.
number two if you go back and listen to the dog and pony show when the stock was $172 last year there was no wow factor there was no new customers the stock traded straight down I was in the leveraged ETF I had a shit ton and I was selling puts accumulating when it was 11 and 1/2 dollars $10 on amdl the whole way up online and I bought a lot of stock of an ETF I'd over 100,000 shares. I was really excited when they had this dog and pony show because the stock was like $16.70 and I'm like oh man I could sell a 17 strike call for the week that's ending and put a lot of money in my pocket that was the Apex it went straight down.
fast forward last quarter they guided lower they reduced their guidance on their top of the line GPU the revenue for data center business which every company out there right now is growing killing it in and they reduced by 7%. that's a huge red flag that is waving back and forth back and forth and if you look last quarter where the stock was till now it's a disaster.
so number two on the list the million-dollar question is what will their quarter be like this time around?
they guided lower and I use the example of snowflake because it's a really good company but they've had a series of problems that cause them to fall short in the stock was decimated.. kept lowering the bar well guess what sooner or later you put the bar on the floor you can walk over it and that's kind of as an example what micron did yesterday. the guided lower last quarter for 6 months. it was the second half story that means July December this year things would improve. the stock got crucified it fell you can see it in the chart it trades in a band 104-86. and yesterday my crumb beat they're lowered guidance.
the point is did Lisa intentionally lower the guidance by 7% because she knew this quarter wouldn't be that bad?
and I'm telling you that's what matters because a 52% margin fucking sucks Jensen is crucified and the reason why they're stock got crushed from 1:35 earnings day down to 104 yes it was tariffs Trump all that shit but the number one reason why it fell that day was because their guidance from origins was going down and he didn't answer the question from the analyst. ask them is this the worst quarter 71 whatever percent will it get better Q2 Q3 and Q4 which means next February 2026 back to 75 plus percent he didn't answer it.
so that's the question for AMD did she intentionally lower the guidance to a point that she knew next quarter meaning the one coming up they will beat?
Kevin Matte OP 10baggerbamm : I see where you're coming from. Trump's restrictions on semiconductors are a key factor, and AMD will definitely be impacted. But beyond that, does Lisa Su really have a winning play with her guidance?
Because yes, lowering expectations to beat them later sometimes works (like Micron), but only if the market has already priced in the bad news. Right now, AMD is losing ground to Nvidia in high-end chips, and their data center division is cutting forecasts while the entire sector is booming.
So the real question is: will the market reward AMD just for beating lowered guidance, or is the trend still bearish
10baggerbamm Kevin Matte OP : I am an optimist if you go back and look at my post you'll understand why I don't short stocks I disclosed everything what happened to me a long time ago and the 1980s. I think AMD is a good company that offers a solution but they are a McDonald's hamburger compared to a Peter Luger steakhouse w a 30 day dry aged porterhouse steak. and the proof is their margins it's a simple as 52% , that sucks shit that means you're selling a commodity and you're competing on price.
Kevin Matte OP 10baggerbamm : AMD is still undervalued by NVDA. Yes, Nvidia dominates the high-end market, but that’s exactly why I chose AMD over NVDA: AMD still has room to grow, while Nvidia is already priced for perfection. Their reliance on AI is a strength, but also a risk—if the AI market cools down, so will their pricing power.
Same for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Bitcoin is digital gold, but Ethereum drives innovation with smart contracts and real-world applications. To me, its long-term utility is stronger.
I’d rather invest in assets with untapped growth potential than those already at their peak.
10baggerbamm Kevin Matte OP : listen to what you said when the market cools down so will they what do you think's going to happen to AMD they sell a commodity and there's multiple private companies right now that compete with AMD like etched they compete with Nvidia as well. the reason why AMD is at risk their margins stink AMD is at 52% Nvidia was at high 70s they went to 75 now they're down to 71 that's why the stock fell because Jensen didn't answer the question from the analyst is this your worst quarter and your margins will improve in q2q3 and in Q4 which is next February they're back to 75% which is what Jensen said their goal was Q4.
AMD has a gaming business their revenues were down their PC segment they sell to their processors their revenues were down. so two of the three divisions they suck at plain and simple and the gpus for data centers they guided lower by 7%. Dell guided lower on the consumer personal computer business division micron last quarter guided lower until the back half of this year.. they came out yesterday they beat their lower guidance but you see what happened to the stock.
so how is AMD going to excel two of the three divisions have no growth their GPU business Lisa CEO of the year for what reason I have no idea destruction of wealth.
their GPU business she reduced q1 by7%. where the fuck is the upside what am I missing?
I know there's bottom fishers I know there's people that look for reversion to the mean I get it but they've been getting killed on the 20-day moving average since 172 straight down.