Citi Sees S&P Companies Beating Q2 EPS Estimates on Productivity Gains in the Labor Market
Goldman Sachs Is Shifting to Neutral, but Remains Mildly Pro-risk for the Next 12 Months
Before the technology financial report, Biden backed down again and the market became even more "uncertain".
Traders are working hard to cope with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the upcoming performance of technology giants, and now they must further weigh how Harris or other candidates will counter Trump. With only four months left until the election, there are too many unknowns, and the US stock market may face a "turbulent summer".
What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Google and Tesla Earnings; GDP and PCE Data)
This week, investors should keep an eye on earnings reports from several key players, including Google and Tesla. Key economic data to watch for will include the release of the first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for June.
"Rate cut trade" and "Trump trade" led the entire market, small-cap stocks rose strongly and csi commodity equity index fell across the board. | Overseas major asset weekly report
The U.S. stock market continues to witness a "big shift" in the market, as investors accelerate their exit from large technology stocks. The "Trump trade" has raised concerns about inflation and pushed up the yield on U.S. long-term bonds, putting pressure on the dollar, and most commodity prices have fallen.
US stocks closed with all three major indices falling, with the S&P Nasdaq index seeing its largest weekly decline in three months. Technology stocks weakened, with Tesla down more than 4%, Nvidia down more than 2%, and CrowdStrike down more than 11%.
Investors accelerated their escape from technology stocks, with stocks and bonds in Europe and the United States being hit hard for two days. This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by about 2% and 3.7%, respectively. The Nasdaq stopped its six-week continuous rise, while the Dow and small-cap indices rose by 0.7% and 1.7%, respectively. Chip stocks fell more than 3% on Friday and nearly 9% for the week. Nvidia also fell more than 8.7% for the past three months, making it the worst performer. The "seven sisters of technology" all fell for the week, and cybersecurity leader Crowdstrike, which triggered a global technology outage, fell 11% on Friday, the worst in nearly two years. The VIX panic index rose more than 32% for the week.
Markets Look Overvalued and Stretched – Morningstar Research's David Sekera
S&P 500 Year-end Price Target Raised to 5,900 at UBS on AI Strength, Profit Growth
Federal Reserve's Daly Says Recent Inflation Data Good but 'Not There Yet'
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly says some incoming inflation data has been “good” but the central bank hasn’t achieved price stability yet. She speaks in a moderated conversation in Dallas.
Two officials of the Federal Reserve indicated that it is necessary to reform the discount window tool.
Boorman, a director of the Federal Reserve, and Logan, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, suggested that the Federal Reserve should assess to what extent its emergency lending tools can meet the liquidity needs of the banking system, implying the need to reform the discount window.
U.S. Economy Is Slowing, Leading Index Signals
The leading index for the economy fell again in June for the fourth month in a row, reflecting a slowdown in U.S. growth since the beginning of the year.
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level Since March. Buyers Aren't Biting
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to its lowest level since mid-March, Freddie Mac said Thursday. The drop hasn't made a difference for prospective home buyers -- yet.
Can sustainable growth be achieved for small cap stocks in the US with the 'historic level increase' of the last five days?
The e-mini Russell 2000 index rose by 12% in just five days, setting a new record in 2024. Analysis believes that the reason for the rise is that the market is optimistic about the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In addition, the "Trump trade" and the value rotation of technology stocks are also important reasons for the index's surge. The market is concerned that small-cap stocks lack fundamental support, and once the market sentiment reverses, it may trigger a significant downturn.
Fed's Barkin Wants to Move 'Deliberately' on Interest Rates
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said he wanted to "proceed deliberately" on interest-rate moves because it was uncertain how much the current level of interest rates was slowing the economy.
Waller Says Fed Is Getting Closer to Cutting Interest Rate as Inflation Slows
Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said the central bank is "getting closer to the time when a cut" in interest rates is warranted, but he still wants more evidence that inflation is slowing before he's ready to move.
Société Générale Warns That the S&P 500 Is at a 'Critical Juncture'
Fed's Kugler Says Rate Cut May Be Appropriate Later This Year
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler says it would be appropriate to lower borrowing costs “later this year” if inflation continues to moderate alongside a cooling yet resilient labor market. She speaks during an event hosted by the National Association for Business Economics in Washington.
UBS Highlights Headwinds and Tailwinds for the Direction of the S&P 500
Traders Pivot Back to Multiple Rate-Cut View, Reviving One of 2024's Biggest Trading Themes
It didn't take long for one of the biggest and most important trading themes at the start of 2024 to come back in the minds of investors and traders, after having faded a month ago.
Dow Rally Drives Wall Street Higher as Rate-cut Hopes Stay Strong
(July 16): The Dow led Wall Street's main indexes higher on Tuesday, boosted by UnitedHealth's strong results and as unexpectedly robust retail sales data signaled a still-resilient US economy, but did little to dampen rate-cut bets.