Latest holdings exposure on Wall Street! Wells Fargo & Co, bank of america 'abandon' apple
U.S. stock market barometer.
As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
The second largest net inflow of capital since 2008! Investors go all in on US stocks
According to EPFR data, in the week up to last Wednesday, US stock etf and mutual funds attracted nearly 56 billion dollars in inflow, marking the second largest weekly inflow record since 2008. These funds have attracted inflow for seven consecutive months, marking the longest duration since 2021.
The surge in US stocks hides a sinister omen: the future outlook for corporate profits is rapidly deteriorating over the next year.
Behind the sharp rise in the US stock market, a rarely noticed ominous sign is gradually emerging: Wall Street analysts are quickly lowering their expectations for next year's profit growth of American companies, which may soon put the brakes on the recent strong rise in the US stock market. Corporate executives in the US stock market have mixed expectations for the future, and many companies are also unwilling to provide future profit guidance.
Investors Are Bracing for Higher-for-Even-Longer Interest Rates
11/18 [Strength and Weakness Materials]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish Factors: The Nikkei average is rising (38,642.91, +107.21) • Active share buybacks • Requests from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for corporate value enhancement. Bearish Factors: The dow jones industrial average is falling (43,444.99, -305.87) • The Nasdaq composite index is falling (18,680.12, -427.53) • 1 dollar = 154.50-60 yen • Chicago futures are falling (38,015, -655) • The SOX index is falling (4,833.59, -171.00) • The VIX index is rising (16.14)
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US Stocks Decline As Powell Comments Weigh On Rate Cut Outlook
Late night broadcasting! Powell: The economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, there is time to understand the impact of Trump's policies.
Powell stated that labor market indicators are returning to more normal levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's full employment target; inflation will continue to decline towards the target of 2%, although there may be occasional fluctuations; the interest rate path is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook. If the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down is the wise choice; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, concluding prematurely on the policies of the Trump administration. The Fed will act cautiously before policy is more certain; the impact of AI may be later and greater than we expect.
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Bank of America survey: After Trump's victory, U.S. stocks are expected to be the best assets in 2025!
① A Bank of America survey shows that fund managers expect that us stocks will become the best performing assets next year, driven by the business-friendly policies of the Trump administration; ② They also expect that the small cap index Russell 2000 will perform the best next year, as its lack of international exposure minimizes the risk of increased overall import tariffs.
Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.