Seizing Trading Opportunities with the US July CPI as an Example | Moomoo Research

Moomoo ResearchAug 14 02:35 ET

Will July Retail Sales Confirm a Soft Landing -- or Fuel Recession Fears?

Barron's58minutes ago · Discovery

8/15 [Strength and Weakness of Materials]

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Fisco Japan19:59 ET

How does Wall Street view CPI? The increase in housing inflation will not hinder the trend of interest rate cuts, and traders are betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

Wall Street analysts have indicated that the July CPI data may further pave the way for the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Next, the Fed will focus on the labor market. If employment weakens, a larger cut of 50 basis points may be needed. Some analysts have said that although housing inflation has ceased its downward trend, it is not a major concern.

wallstreetcn19:28 ET

Wall Street Breakfast FM-Radio | August 15, 2024.

In July, the inflation rate of the USA's CPI decreased for the fourth consecutive month, and the core CPI hit a new low for more than three years, consolidating market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. However, because the CPI is basically as expected and housing inflation is heating up, traders have reduced their bets on a sharp 50 basis point rate cut in September.

wallstreetcn19:24 ET

"New American Union News Agency": The way for interest rate cuts in September has been paved, and the focus is on the scale of interest rate cuts.

Timiraos said that a rate cut is almost inevitable and the focus of the September meeting will shift to whether the rate cut decision is unanimous and whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point cut. The reason why the size of the rate cut may become a topic of discussion is because the recent US labor market has shown signs of potential weakness. Therefore, even if the inflation data is not as moderate as the Fed expected, the reason for the rate cut in September has become more justifiable. He believes that moderate inflation data may make it more likely for there to be three rate cuts this year.

wallstreetcn19:01 ET