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10/8 [Strength and Weakness Analysis]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: Nikkei Average is rising (39,332.74, +697.12), US crude oil futures are rising (77.14, +2.76), Expectation of easing inflation in the US, active share buybacks, request from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for enhancing corporate value. Bearish factors: NY Dow is falling (41,954.24, -398.51), Nasdaq Composite Index is falling (17,923.90, -213.94), $1 = 148.00-10 yen, Chicago Nikkei futures are falling (38,915, Osaka comparison -455).
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Goldman Sachs released three heavyweight research reports over the weekend: downgrading the forecast for US recession, expecting the Chinese stock market to rise by another 15% to 20%.
Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team believes that the US large cap stocks can rise by another 4.3% to 6000 points by the end of the year, as the possibility of a US recession has decreased, allowing the Federal Reserve to only reduce interest rates by 25 basis points each time. Their AP strategic team has upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "shareholding" and is bullish on the potential boost to valuation from large-scale stimulus measures.
US stocks collectively fell by about 1%, with Chinese concept stocks rebounding in a V-shape, US bond yields rising above 4%, and oil prices rising by nearly 4%.
USA stocks and bonds both fell, with the Dow down 400 points, Tesla down 3.7%, Nvidia up over 2%, Chinese concept stocks fell nearly 3% before closing higher, Alibaba and Tencent ADRs rose 2.6%, Li Auto Inc. rose over 4%. The two-year US treasury yield rose nearly 10 basis points, breaking above 4% for the first time since August for both the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields, with the US dollar hovering at a seven-week high since August 16. Brent crude oil closed above $80, reaching a six-week high along with WTI oil climbing above $77. Silver briefly fell more than 2.4%.
Investors are waiting for the financial reports of Wall Street's major banks, while the s&p 500 index's financial sector is close to summer highs.
Financial stocks have outperformed the s&p 500 index so far this month, and investors are eagerly awaiting the quarterly financial reports of major banks to be released this weekend.
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Top Wall Street strategists are more bullish on US stocks, while the big short seller Wilson is more bullish on cyclical stocks. Kostin raised the S&P target.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson believes that cyclical stocks outperform defensive stocks, as the strong non-farm payroll data released last Friday and expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs's David Kostin has raised the S&P's target price for the next 12 months by 5% to 6300 points, equivalent to an increase of over 9.5% compared to last Friday's closing.
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What happened during the National Day holiday at home and abroad? Here is a summary of important financial news.
①Shanghai Stock Exchange: From October 8th, the acceptance time for designated trading order instructions will be extended; Goldman Sachs has raised the Chinese stock market to "overweight", expecting a further increase of 15-20%; ②Hong Kong stocks are booming with a high increase in the number of new brokerage accounts and margin trading data within the past week; Many places have introduced optimized policies for real estate, and the market has responded positively.
This week, the financial reporting season kicks off! The s&p 500, which surged by 8 trillion US dollars, is facing a major test.
Wars, the Federal Reserve, and the US presidential election may all cast shadows over the performance of US stock companies, but analysts have lowered expectations and reduced the threshold for profit surprises.
10/7 [Strength and weakness materials]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: Nikkei Average is rising (38,635.62, +83.56), NY Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising (42,352.75, +341.16), Nasdaq Composite Index is rising (18,137.85, +219.37), 1 Dollar = 149.00-10 Yen, Chicago Nikkei Futures are rising (39,625, +1,065 compared to Osaka), SOX Index is rising (5,206.84, +81.62), VIX Index is decreasing (19.21, -1.28), US Crude Oil Futures are rising (74.38, +0.