SPDR S&P 500 ETF Stock Discussion

Ultratechman : did you invent the sahm rule ? if not maybe be creative and think of shit on your own rather then make yourself seem intelligent reposting plagiarism. go find some fking stocks instead of fear mongering everyone knows September is probably bearish. the data is just a false narrative to justify keeping the market down...the stock market would go straight up if they let it ok this is all baloney

ZnWC Ultratechman : Please don't be upset because not everyone agrees that the recession is coming at least not Claudia Sahm, the inventor of Sahm Rule. Read here:
This accurate recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm rule’ creator says ‘this time really could be different' - Fortune
Moomoo's community guidelines encourage us to accept opposing views in a friendly environment. I learned something new reading @Brianjh's post but that doesn't mean I agree with him.

102178309 : A dollar each time I heard recession coming from analysts the past 5 years would make me a billionaire though.

Ed92 C ZnWC : Stop wasting your energy bro
This guy blocked me just because I have different POV in $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$

Ultratechman ZnWC : ya well I speak the truth. wannabe analysts have been  wrong every step of the way and I do hate it when people post narrative stories fear mongering trying to manipulate people into selling everytime there's a red day. it chips away at people's accounts if they read this and sell..when people try to discourage investors i will confront them and try to warn people not to take loss by selling unnecessarily

frogoracletrading OP : Type 434 = 534

福贵吉祥 知足常乐 : US has always done this kind of stupid things at the wrong timing. If Biden execute this action, I'm sure they won't win the November election amymore. TRUMP winning will be 100%... Good news for those vote for him and cryto investment going to be outstanding in next year.

Ultratechman : stop. please let's not do this.. just the day beforehand they were saying the us economy skipped any sort of recession.

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Ultratechman : Hey Ultratechman,
Thanks for your comment. Here’s my perspective:
Despite the skepticism from Claudia Sahm and Jerome Powell, the Sahm Rule has a nearly perfect track record in predicting recessions. Historically, when the Sahm Rule exceeds 0.5%, the economy is either already in a recession or enters one very soon. This consistency makes it a reliable indicator, and I choose to trust it based on its past performance.
During the COVID-19 recession, officials were reluctant to acknowledge the downturn, labeling it as a "technical recession." Later, data and charts categorized it as a genuine recession. This shows that politicians often play with terminology to avoid admitting to a recession, especially around critical times like elections.
Given the upcoming U.S. elections in November 2024, it’s plausible that officials might delay acknowledging a recession to avoid political fallout. Current economic data suggests we might already be in a recession, despite official statements to the contrary.
I believe in the Sahm Rule's data over public statements due to its historical reliability. Time will tell if this analysis is correct, but for now, I trust the indicator.
Thanks for the discussion!
Best,
Alex

Ultratechman : I already figured they wouldn't cut them before election cuz things could get out of control but September is close enough. People are going to want to sell then switch positions and next day market goes the other direction forcing them to cut and follow new trend. this is how people lose money dumping their shares.  up and down but then after it's all over the general direction will always be up.  it could be a simple thing such as apple is too high bringing spy down everyone starts crying blood. plus I believe while market is in a correction fear driven bs gets pumped down our throats then next thing you know everything rallies again anyway where you were better off just holding original positions.

Alex Wong Cian Yih OP Ultratechman : Hi Ultratechman,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I just wanted to give a friendly reminder to be cautious about being overly optimistic right now.
Recently, we've seen significant market volatility. On August 2, 2024, the Dow Jones dropped by 1,000 points, and Japan's Nikkei Index plummeted by 2,000 points, signaling a collective global market downturn. The triggers included disappointing ISM manufacturing PMI, poor U.S. job data, and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
Although the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible rate cut in September, this was initially seen as a positive signal by Wall Street. However, the sudden market crash shortly after suggests underlying issues. Historically, when the Sahm Rule exceeds 0.5%, as it did recently (now at 0.53%), it has consistently indicated a recession, regardless of official statements.
Moreover, notable investors like Warren Buffett have significantly reduced their positions in major stocks like Apple and Bank of America, signaling potential concerns about the market's direction. This aligns with historical patterns where market crashes often follow periods of excessive optimism and denial of underlying economic issues.
Given these indicators and the upcoming U.S. elections, it’s plausible that official narratives might downplay the severity of the situation. Therefore, I believe it’s prudent to stay cautious and prepared for potential downturns.
Best,
Alex

Ultratechman : he sold apple cuz he wanted to. it was high. Apple sucks anyway.. I know about the potential of a bearish September market idk why you're telling me this

Gan John : Is it going to crash?

OceansWave OP Gan John : I have no crystal ball.. but typically when interest rates are implemented, stock market will be weaker…

Gan John : Thankyou

6554 : we can't beat big player

OneDirection 6554 : Always we can utilise the trap by buying more

Ultratechman : doesn't matter

MonkeyGee : so in agreement with you.  Roaring Kitty has shown how manipulated the market is.   The big boys always use these positions to slam the retail.  you think its going down, watch it go up.