The market is refocusing on usa CPI! It is crucial whether the Federal Reserve will press the "pause button" on interest rate cuts.
If the September usa CPI data is very strong, the rate cut in November will become "uncertain".
Options Market Statistics: XPEV Options Pop as US-Listed Chinese Stocks Keep Climbing
"Hot non-farm payroll data suppresses the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the 'global assets pricing anchor' returns to 4%."
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has plummeted, leading to intensified selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to break through the important 4% level; the market bets that the interest rate cut before the end of the year will be less than 50 basis points.
10/8 [Strength and Weakness Analysis]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: Nikkei Average is rising (39,332.74, +697.12), US crude oil futures are rising (77.14, +2.76), Expectation of easing inflation in the US, active share buybacks, request from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for enhancing corporate value. Bearish factors: NY Dow is falling (41,954.24, -398.51), Nasdaq Composite Index is falling (17,923.90, -213.94), $1 = 148.00-10 yen, Chicago Nikkei futures are falling (38,915, Osaka comparison -455).
The Fed May Not Cut Rates in November. What to Do With Treasury Bonds Now
Goldman Sachs released three heavyweight research reports over the weekend: downgrading the forecast for US recession, expecting the Chinese stock market to rise by another 15% to 20%.
Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team believes that the US large cap stocks can rise by another 4.3% to 6000 points by the end of the year, as the possibility of a US recession has decreased, allowing the Federal Reserve to only reduce interest rates by 25 basis points each time. Their AP strategic team has upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "shareholding" and is bullish on the potential boost to valuation from large-scale stimulus measures.
