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The Fed Is All But Decided On September Rate Cut: Here's Why It May Not Provide The Lift Wall Street Is Betting On
Global central banks are collectively shifting their focus. Should financial markets be more cautious instead?
The complexity of global central bank mmf policies highlights the potential prospect of market facing potential turmoil.
Powell is 'completely dovish', traders are constantly debating the size of the rate cut.
The US employment data for August, which will be released on September 6, is crucial. John Velis, the foreign exchange and macro strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said that if the next round of data continues to be lower than expected, "there may be a significant rate cut of 50 basis points."
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The Federal Reserve is "in position"! The global easing curtain is expected to open a new chapter next month.
Last Friday, officials from the three major central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe coincidentally stated that they will enter an interest rate cut cycle in the coming months or continue the previous rate cut pace. This indicates that as the global economy gradually emerges from the post-pandemic period of high inflation, the era of high global borrowing costs is about to end, and the loose monetary policies of major central banks are also expected to usher in a new chapter next month.
High-energy warning! Wall Street bears unanimously predict: US economic recession is imminent, US stocks may plummet by 70%!
① The short sellers warned that as the economy cools down, the stock market could experience a crash; ② One strategist even predicted that in the case of overvalued valuations, an economic recession could lead to a 70% decline in the stock market.
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Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting signals a major shift to dovishness, suggesting a possible rate cut in September. This leads to a global asset frenzy, with stocks, bonds, commodities, and digital currencies all rising across the board.
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Powell leads the market, will the US stock market return to an upward trend? | Overseas Major Asset Weekly Report
Fed Chair Powell sent the clearest signal to date at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, suggesting that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. He also believes that the US economy is growing at a "steady pace", alleviating concerns of an economic recession.
How does Wall Street view Powell's shift? Is it time to discuss a 50 basis point rate cut in September?
Wall Street generally believes that Powell's speech has opened the door for a rate cut in September. The key to the size of the rate cut will be the August non-farm payrolls. If the labor market continues to weaken, the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points or even 75 basis points.