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Dow hits a new high! Rotation in the US stock market: What should investors look at before the interest rate cut in September?
①The Dow hit a new high, with more than half of the S&P 500 index stocks rising, but at the same time, the sharp decline in technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 0.85%... ②Are you familiar with this scene? ③That's right, in the early stages of the rotational trend in the US stock market last month, this is roughly how the market operated.
Will there be a 25 basis point rate cut in September? New signals from Fed's Daly and Barkin.
Rate cuts need to be more cautious.
Fed's Powell: Inflation still poses upside risks, but supports a 25 basis point rate cut next month.
①Baljan pointed out that he tends to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, gradually adjusting policies by observing market and economic reactions; ②The practice of "lower hiring, lower firing" currently adopted by American companies is unlikely to continue.
Did the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boost risk assets? Historical results are counterintuitive.
In the history of modern finance, there have been 14 complete cycles of the Federal Reserve. Although the market's reaction to interest rate cuts may vary at different times, there are some obvious trends: when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates quickly, the market performance is worse compared to a gradual interest rate cut scenario. In the scenario of rapid interest rate cuts, within one year after the first interest rate cut, the maximum drawdown is twice as much as in the scenario of gradual interest rate cuts.
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The Fed Is All But Decided On September Rate Cut: Here's Why It May Not Provide The Lift Wall Street Is Betting On
Global central banks are collectively shifting their focus. Should financial markets be more cautious instead?
The complexity of global central bank mmf policies highlights the potential prospect of market facing potential turmoil.
Powell is 'completely dovish', traders are constantly debating the size of the rate cut.
The US employment data for August, which will be released on September 6, is crucial. John Velis, the foreign exchange and macro strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said that if the next round of data continues to be lower than expected, "there may be a significant rate cut of 50 basis points."
Fed May Proceed With Incremental Rate Cuts, Nomura's Nicholson Says
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The Federal Reserve is "in position"! The global easing curtain is expected to open a new chapter next month.
Last Friday, officials from the three major central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe coincidentally stated that they will enter an interest rate cut cycle in the coming months or continue the previous rate cut pace. This indicates that as the global economy gradually emerges from the post-pandemic period of high inflation, the era of high global borrowing costs is about to end, and the loose monetary policies of major central banks are also expected to usher in a new chapter next month.
High-energy warning! Wall Street bears unanimously predict: US economic recession is imminent, US stocks may plummet by 70%!
① The short sellers warned that as the economy cools down, the stock market could experience a crash; ② One strategist even predicted that in the case of overvalued valuations, an economic recession could lead to a 70% decline in the stock market.
Powell Says Time Has Come for Rate Cuts. Here's the Opportunity for Investors
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