The Global bond market is experiencing a frantic sell-off, with US Treasury yields quickly approaching 5%.
The 20-year US Treasury yield has already broken through 5%, while the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield has also risen to 4.82%, reaching a new high since 2008. Inflation worries have prompted traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this year, and at the same time, the market is weighing the impact of President Trump's policies.
The last time the US bonds dropped like this, the US stock market also crashed.
Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
U.S. stock market close: the three major indexes varied in performance; Huang Renxun's remarks caused a collapse in the Quantum Computing Sector.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.67%, with most China Concept Stocks declining; ② Wildfires ravaged California, and Electrical Utilities provider Edison International fell by 10%; ③ Jensen Huang stated that a "very useful" quantum computer may take several decades to arrive; ④ Intel: will continue to focus on the independent graphics card market.
Oak Tree Capital's Marks: New things are prone to bubbles, currently private equity buying S&P 500, with a 10-year yield of only ±2%.
Max recently released a memorandum titled "Revisiting the Bubble," stating that investors are currently betting on the leading high-tech companies to maintain their dominance. However, he believes that it is not easy to stay ahead, as new technologies and competitors can surpass existing market leaders at any time. When people assume that "things can only get better" and Buy based on that, the impact of negative news can be particularly severe. He specifically pointed out the frenzy over AI and how this positive sentiment may spread to other Technology sectors.
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