Trump's Day 1: Incoming President Looks Set to Act on Tariffs, Crypto, Energy and Immigration
The Global bond market is experiencing a frantic sell-off, with US Treasury yields quickly approaching 5%.
The 20-year US Treasury yield has already broken through 5%, while the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield has also risen to 4.82%, reaching a new high since 2008. Inflation worries have prompted traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England this year, and at the same time, the market is weighing the impact of President Trump's policies.
The last time the US bonds dropped like this, the US stock market also crashed.
Recently, the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is similar to the situation in 2022 and 2023, when the stock market experienced a substantial decline. Goldman Sachs stated that although the U.S. stock market is relatively stable now, the correlation between stock and bond yields has turned negative. If economic data falls short of expectations, the risk of a market correction in the short term may increase.
U.S. stock market close: the three major indexes varied in performance; Huang Renxun's remarks caused a collapse in the Quantum Computing Sector.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.67%, with most China Concept Stocks declining; ② Wildfires ravaged California, and Electrical Utilities provider Edison International fell by 10%; ③ Jensen Huang stated that a "very useful" quantum computer may take several decades to arrive; ④ Intel: will continue to focus on the independent graphics card market.
Oak Tree Capital's Marks: New things are prone to bubbles, currently private equity buying S&P 500, with a 10-year yield of only ±2%.
Max recently released a memorandum titled "Revisiting the Bubble," stating that investors are currently betting on the leading high-tech companies to maintain their dominance. However, he believes that it is not easy to stay ahead, as new technologies and competitors can surpass existing market leaders at any time. When people assume that "things can only get better" and Buy based on that, the impact of negative news can be particularly severe. He specifically pointed out the frenzy over AI and how this positive sentiment may spread to other Technology sectors.
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Wall Street's New Year interest rate "gamble": from several rate cuts, it has changed to whether rates will remain unchanged or not...
On Tuesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of Global asset pricing," further reached its highest level in eight months; the betting game surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction seems to have completely shifted from several rate cuts this year to whether further cuts will actually happen...
2024 "Capitol Hill Stock God" performance: dozens of members of Congress outperform the Large Cap stock market, with the highest yield reaching 149%!
① According to a new report, in the recently passed year of 2024, the stock investment portfolios of over 20 USA lawmakers outperformed the Large Cap; ② Congressman David Rouzer had the highest investment portfolio return, reaching 149%; ③ This has once again raised concerns about insider trading among congressional members.
U.S. stock market close: Inflation concerns lead to a decline in all indexes, NVIDIA fell 6% after reaching a new high.
① The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.2%, with China Concept Stocks showing mixed results; ② NVIDIA launched its personal computing product Project DIGITS; ③ XPENG Huaitian: Flying cars will be mass-produced and delivered in 2026; ④ Vaccine stocks soared, with Moderna rising nearly 12% and Novavax increasing by nearly 11%.
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Morgan Stanley CIO: The US stock market will experience "ice and fire" in 2025, with a difficult start in the first half of the year!
1. Michael Wilson, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley, stated that the challenges faced by US stocks in the first half of the year are greater, as the surge in bond yields and the strengthening dollar pose risks to the stock market. 2. He pointed out that the correlation between the S&P 500 Index and US Treasury yields has turned into a "decisive negative correlation," a divergence that has not been seen since last summer.
China Securities Co.,Ltd.: The future trends of the US stock market depend on the sustainability of the Technology revolution driven by AI.
The underlying logic of the Reagan cycle is to suppress inflation with tight MMF, stimulate growth with loose regulation, and ultimately create a cycle of "economic growth - strong dollar - strong U.S. stocks" in growth, liquidity, and Assets.
U.S. stock market closing: the three major Indexes had mixed results, with the Technology conference CES boosting chip stocks higher.
① Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.16%, most China Concept Stocks fell, Tencent ADR dropped nearly 8%; ② MicroStrategy has purchased Bitcoin for nine consecutive weeks; ③ Trump denies plans to reduce the applicability of tariffs; ④ Qualcomm announces the launch of the new AI chip Snapdragon X.
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U.S. stocks closed: the S&P and Nasdaq recorded five consecutive daily losses while Small Cap stocks saw a surge in speculative trading.
① The three major Index opened high but closed low, with the S&P and Nasdaq recording a decline for the fifth consecutive day; ② Tesla's annual delivery data has decreased for the first time in over a decade; ③ USA AI Nuclear Power Concept stocks secured a government L of 1 billion dollars; ④ "Roaring Kitty" leads the way, Small Cap thematic concept stocks gained hype.
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