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50bp Rate Cut Could Spur 'Dramatic' Yield Curve Bull Steepening, Hurt Stocks: Economist
Local Bonds To Tapper Down Ahead Of Fed's Rate Cut
On the eve of the September interest rate meeting, a report ignited expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, causing stocks, gold, and bitcoin to all rise.
"New Federal Reserve Communications Agency" article stated that Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points. Futures linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate indicate that traders on Friday expect the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to rise to 47%, with a close to 50/50 chance, while the probability estimated on Thursday was only 28%.
Yield Curve Uninversion, S&P 500 Activity Typical of Non-recessionary Trends - Barclays
Treasury Yields Drop as Traders Put Biggest Fed Rate Cut in 16 Years Back on the Table for Next Week
The suspense of the Fed interest rate cut will be revealed next week! The interest rate dot plot and the expected unemployment rate are eagerly awaited by everyone.
According to a survey of economists, the Fed is very likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting and the following two meetings.
Georgehx : What do you mean?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : JP Morgan and at least one other major bank are selling off while Treasury yields are falling. That tends to be a strong sign of flight to safety.
Georgehx Derpy Trades OP : You’ve got a valid point but I’m holding mainly bonds atm bcz of the volatility in market rn & bonds tend to rise when interest rates fall so doesn’t really matter 25 or 50 basis points, bonds esp longer ones will do well am I right to say that?
Derpy Trades OP Georgehx : The bond market is very complex, and so that is a very difficult question to answer. In most scenarios bonds will rally when or even in anticipation of rate cuts, but if there were ever a black swan event in which the Fed had to monetize our government's debt, long-term interest rates would likely skyrocket and bonds would depreciate quickly.