• 暗号 : It may also be the case that the Federal Reserve is forced to taper its bond purchases.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• thoughtful Bat_8163 暗号 : The likelihood is quite high

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• 暗号 thoughtful Bat_8163 : This 'debt-ridden' US treasury product has no buyers and is seriously unsalable.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• thoughtful Bat_8163 暗号 : I believe that US Treasury bonds are one of the safest assets. Currently, the price of US Treasury bonds is falling, causing the yield to rise, which simply reflects the strength of the US economy. Investing in other assets can bring higher returns, and the Federal Reserve has expressed a slowdown in the expected rate cuts, so US Treasury bonds are being sold off.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• 暗号 : The 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a 100 basis point increase in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, this extreme anomaly has already emerged, meaning long-term investors have to add additional risk premium to the traditional 60:40 (stock and bond investment portfolio). For retirement funds, pension funds, and individual investors who have long relied on this investment portfolio, it is a disaster.
  Long-term government bonds have weakened demand, while short-term government bond issuances have been utilized to the limit. The root of the problem lies in debt repayment capabilities, the model of using new bonds to repay old ones is increasingly being rejected, with more people in need of commodities, resources, and gold.
  Any artificial suppression of yields will further weaken the credibility of the US dollar as a global reserve.
  Rate cuts + balance sheet expansion, releasing liquidity to solve all problems, may no longer be effective for the USA.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• Ultratech : the market simply doesn't dead cat bounce.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• 70495194 : This shit is going 80. The long term rate will be 4% for a long time. There is no upside on bonds.

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• Mr6USA 70495194 : Don't think so. US economy is on the edge. Rate can't be kept that high for long, or a lot of things will collapse

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• 103895708 : Who knows that big investment banks like Morgan aren't deliberately shorting to balance risk, and in this process, those small banks or asset allocations that are heavy on long-term treasury bonds will explode, and they will take the opportunity to buy at a low price. There are also recent reports that Stanley Druckenmiller (Stanley Druckenmiller), a former partner of George Soros, is shorting US Treasury bonds (US bonds). The Chinese government is also emptying US debt and buying gold. Whether the US Treasury cuts interest rates drastically now and starts a new round of QE, which means inflation will come again, or the banks will continue to explode. Otherwise, there may be insufficient liquidity, as Yellen said. This means that US debt will continue to fall AA+ in 2011. You need to know that now the total size of US debt will reach 36 trillion, and the remaining second-place Japan only holds 1.08 cents. China only sells 770 percent. Billions, if the liquidity risk is actually shorted, then the world will be left in jeopardy, and we can't see any opportunity, because everyone thinks the safest thing is going to collapse, and what else won't collapse?

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• kwang007 103895708 : Because first of all, the Federal Reserve just didn't do the same thing as Japan. If there were times of crisis, it could do this. If you look at the large size of US debt, it's actually not that big in proportion. The Fed can do it by minutes if it really wants to lower interest rates on long-term bonds. It's just that the Federal Reserve doesn't think this is necessary; it doesn't matter if the 10-year interest rate falls below 5. Also, you need to know that inflation and recession are just a matter of thought. What you haven't figured out is that if banks actually have thunderstorms and commercial real estate thunderstorms, in my opinion, the concern about the recession is actually greater than the concern about inflation. All of people's emotions now are on inflation. If the unemployment rate rises, commercial real estate thunderstorms, banks go out of business, and the story line of recession is raging, you need to understand that TLT can go up to the sky. The downward space TLT is 80. The upward space is huge, so why not allocate it?

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• 103895708 kwang007 : What you said is very reasonable, so you mean you don't need to consider liquidity risk to buy boldly? And why do you think 80 is the end?

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

View more comments...

• 73569545 : There will also be core PCE tomorrow. If the data is bad, it will go black five

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply

• Chris12 : To be precise, it is inversely related to the 10-year US Treasury yield. Today, the 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.5. We should pay more attention to the recent correction in US stocks, because the 10-year US Treasury yield is still inversely related to the valuation of US stocks

  Report

  Reply
  Cancel Reply