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What does a 1.7% yield on a 10-year government bond signify?
Xinda Securities believes that the recent pricing of the 10-year government bond yields reflects the potential for a decline in the OMO rate next year. Based on the economic outlook and monetary policy environment for 2025, it is anticipated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the OMO rate may be necessary to achieve a marginal easing similar to that of 2024, which suggests that the 1.7% yield on the 10-year government bonds does not appear to be overly priced.
The most important market changes in the past few weeks have impacted all Assets! However, HSBC believes that "this will bring good buying opportunities in the first half of the year."
HSBC believes that a "just right" economic environment may emerge in the first half of 2025. The market breadth of the S&P 500 Index has significantly decreased, and historical experience suggests that this may be a contrarian indicator, indicating that the market adjustment is nearing its end.
暗号 : It may also be the case that the Federal Reserve is forced to taper its bond purchases.
thoughtful Bat_8163 暗号 : The likelihood is quite high
暗号 thoughtful Bat_8163 : This 'debt-ridden' US treasury product has no buyers and is seriously unsalable.
thoughtful Bat_8163 暗号 : I believe that US Treasury bonds are one of the safest assets. Currently, the price of US Treasury bonds is falling, causing the yield to rise, which simply reflects the strength of the US economy. Investing in other assets can bring higher returns, and the Federal Reserve has expressed a slowdown in the expected rate cuts, so US Treasury bonds are being sold off.
暗号 : The 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a 100 basis point increase in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, this extreme anomaly has already emerged, meaning long-term investors have to add additional risk premium to the traditional 60:40 (stock and bond investment portfolio). For retirement funds, pension funds, and individual investors who have long relied on this investment portfolio, it is a disaster.
Long-term government bonds have weakened demand, while short-term government bond issuances have been utilized to the limit. The root of the problem lies in debt repayment capabilities, the model of using new bonds to repay old ones is increasingly being rejected, with more people in need of commodities, resources, and gold.
Any artificial suppression of yields will further weaken the credibility of the US dollar as a global reserve.
Rate cuts + balance sheet expansion, releasing liquidity to solve all problems, may no longer be effective for the USA.
长期国债已经需求疲软，短期国债发行已经被利用到极限，问题的根源在于偿债能力，以新债还旧债这种模式已经越来越被排斥，更多人需要的是商品、资源和黄金。
一切“人为压低收益率”，都会进一步削弱美元作为全球储备的信用度
降息+扩表，释放流动性解决一切问题，可能对美国不再有效