Treasury Yields Start New Year Little Changed -- Market Talk
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What does a 1.7% yield on a 10-year government bond signify?
Xinda Securities believes that the recent pricing of the 10-year government bond yields reflects the potential for a decline in the OMO rate next year. Based on the economic outlook and monetary policy environment for 2025, it is anticipated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the OMO rate may be necessary to achieve a marginal easing similar to that of 2024, which suggests that the 1.7% yield on the 10-year government bonds does not appear to be overly priced.
The most important market changes in the past few weeks have impacted all Assets! However, HSBC believes that "this will bring good buying opportunities in the first half of the year."
HSBC believes that a "just right" economic environment may emerge in the first half of 2025. The market breadth of the S&P 500 Index has significantly decreased, and historical experience suggests that this may be a contrarian indicator, indicating that the market adjustment is nearing its end.
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Compared to last April, the market is clearly more optimistic about the USA economy and the US stock market, which in some way also implies a more pessimistic view on the Bonds market.
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U.S. Treasury yields have declined, and the "Santa Claus rally" is still hindered. Wells Fargo & Co expects the Federal Reserve to only lower interest rates once next year!
On the second to last trading day of 2024, the yield on USA government bonds declined.
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Is the next "explosive" market threshold for US Treasury bonds 4.75%?
Julian Emanuel, a strategist at Evercore ISI, stated that although long-term corporate earnings remain a driving force in the stock market, rising bond yields will pose the greatest challenge to the U.S. bull market. He expects that if the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 4.5%, the U.S. stock market will still have the ability to overcome pressure and continue to rise. However, if yields exceed 4.75%, it could trigger a longer and deeper stock market adjustment.
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