• 70495194 : This shit is going 80. The long term rate will be 4% for a long time. There is no upside on bonds.

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• Mr6USA 70495194 : Don't think so. US economy is on the edge. Rate can't be kept that high for long, or a lot of things will collapse

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• 103895708 : Who knows if it's not large investment banks like Morgan intentionally shorting to balance the risks, during this process, those small banks or institutions holding long-term government bonds will explode, they will take advantage of buying at low stock prices. Wall Street can't sit still. In addition, there have been reports recently that Stanley Druckenmiller, former partner of George Soros, is shorting US Treasury bonds. The Chinese government is also shorting US Treasury bonds, buying Gold. If the US Treasury Department doesn't significantly cut interest rates now and start a new round of Quantitative Easing, it means inflation is coming again, or wait for more banks to explode. Or it could lead to a shortage of liquidity as Yellen mentioned, which means US Treasury bonds will drop further from AA+ since 2011. It's important to note that the total size of US Treasury bonds is expected to reach 36 trillion, with US institutions holding only around 5 trillion, followed by Japan at around 1.08 trillion. China is left with only 770 billion in sales. If there is a liquidity risk and panic selling, then the whole world will be in danger, with no visible opportunity because everyone thinks that even the safest things are collapsing. What else wouldn't collapse?

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• kwang007 103895708 : Because first of all, the Federal Reserve simply did not do the same things as Japan. If there is a crisis, they can do the same. If you really look at the scale of US debt, it's not that big in proportion. The Federal Reserve can lower long-term interest rates in minutes if they want to, they just don't think it's necessary right now. They won't care as long as the 10-year rate is below 5. And you should know, inflation and recession are just a thought away. What you haven't figured out is that if banks really collapse, commercial real estate collapses, in my opinion, the concern about recession is greater than the concern about inflation. People's emotions are all about inflation now. If unemployment rises, commercial real estate collapses, banks go bankrupt, the recession story is very close. You need to understand that TLT can go to the sky, the downside of TLT is 80, the upside potential is huge, why not allocate?

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• 103895708 kwang007 : You make a lot of sense, so are you implying that there's no need to consider the liquidity risk and boldly buy? And why do you think 80 is the limit?

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