Bank of America: Everyone believes in a rate cut and a trade with Trump, so it's time to "buy rumors, sell news".
Bank of America's Chief Strategist Michael Hartnett believes that market risk appetite is rotating, rather than receding, and expects funds to flow from the US dollar to gold, from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, and the market will shift from momentum trading to volatility trading.
What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Google and Tesla Earnings; GDP and PCE Data)
This week, investors should keep an eye on earnings reports from several key players, including Google and Tesla. Key economic data to watch for will include the release of the first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for June.
Won't Get Fooled Again - Fed Wants Inflation to Cool Further Before Cutting Interest Rates
A cautious Fed has been burned before The U.S. economy has downshifted. The jobs market has cooled. And inflation is slowing again. So what's the Federal Reserve waiting for?
NASDAQ is experiencing a major correction, where can you hide? The Dow Jones, gold, and US bonds are all falling, but bitcoin remains 'strong'.
Market style has changed due to factors such as improved prospects for Trump's campaign and increased expectations for interest rate cuts.
US stocks closed with all three major indices falling, with the S&P Nasdaq index seeing its largest weekly decline in three months. Technology stocks weakened, with Tesla down more than 4%, Nvidia down more than 2%, and CrowdStrike down more than 11%.
Investors accelerated their escape from technology stocks, with stocks and bonds in Europe and the United States being hit hard for two days. This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by about 2% and 3.7%, respectively. The Nasdaq stopped its six-week continuous rise, while the Dow and small-cap indices rose by 0.7% and 1.7%, respectively. Chip stocks fell more than 3% on Friday and nearly 9% for the week. Nvidia also fell more than 8.7% for the past three months, making it the worst performer. The "seven sisters of technology" all fell for the week, and cybersecurity leader Crowdstrike, which triggered a global technology outage, fell 11% on Friday, the worst in nearly two years. The VIX panic index rose more than 32% for the week.
Two officials of the Federal Reserve indicated that it is necessary to reform the discount window tool.
Boorman, a director of the Federal Reserve, and Logan, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, suggested that the Federal Reserve should assess to what extent its emergency lending tools can meet the liquidity needs of the banking system, implying the need to reform the discount window.
Latest data! The two largest "creditors" of China and Japan are massively selling off US debt, while the United Kingdom is increasing its shareholding by $13.1 billion.
China's debt holdings in May approached the lowest point since 2009.
Underlying Details of 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Auction Were Strong
0605 GMT - Demand for the U.S. Treasury's $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds on Wednesday slowed from the previous auction, which had particularly strong statistics, but the underlying details
Rate Cut Bets vs. Trump Trades: Key Assets to Watch in the Hottest Trades Now
"Rate cut trades" and "Trump trades" have emerged as the most popular trading themes currently. Investors are closely monitoring which assets will be the first to benefit under these two trading themes and what opportunities are arising.
Greater Prospects of Trump Winning Election Could Push Up U.S. Treasury Yields -- Market Talk
A potentially higher possibility of Donald Trump winning the November presidential elections following an assasination attempt against him over the weekend could drive up U.S. Treasury yields, especially long-dated yields, UniCredit Research analysts say in a note.
Trump Shooting Offers Test for Stock Market as Investors Weigh His Election Odds Now
Markets have been taking their cue from the probability of Trump's election victory.
It's Time for the Fed to End the Waiting Game
Why wait until September? That is the question hanging over markets after Thursday's surprisingly weak inflation reading. There doesn't seem to be much reason for the Federal Reserve
Will Rate Cut Expectations Trigger a Shift from Large to Small Caps?
As June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates a slight deceleration in inflation, rising to 3% from the previous year, investors are recalibrating their portfolios, pivoting away from the large-cap technology and that have propelled market indexes to record peaks.
U.S. Treasury Investors Look to Be in Bond-Positive Mood -- Market Talk
Investors on the primary market for U.S. government bonds seem to be leaning toward the bond-positive view, Elmar Voelker, senior fixed income analyst at LBBW, says in a note. Admittedly, the post-CPI 30-year bond auction on Thursday was somewhat slow, while the most recent auction of 10-year Treasurys didn't meet quite as much demand as its predecessor in June, even though the bid-to-cover ratio was above the long-term average, he says.
The Nasdaq fell nearly 2%, with the largest selling volume of the 'Seven Sisters' in a year and a half, while small caps and Chinese concept stocks surged, and US bonds rose sharply.
Comprehensive cooling of US inflation, September rate cut betting pushing US stocks rotation, S&P and Nasdaq ended seven-day consecutive gains and moved away from their highs, Tesla plummeted 8.4%, the worst in nearly half a year and stopped 11-day consecutive gains, Nvidia fell 5.6%, and the chip index fell 3.5%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose 3.6%, the best since November last year and the highest in two and a half years, and the worst-performing real estate sector this year had the largest increase in the year. US bond yields fell sharply across the board, with the US dollar falling the deepest in two months. The yen rose by 2.6% at one point, the biggest gain since the end of 2022, and anonymous officials confirmed that the government intervened to rescue the currency.
Falling Rates Open an Opportunity in Fixed Income
By Xavier Baraton and Willem Sels About the authors: Xavier Baraton is global chief investment officer, HSBC Asset Management. Willem Sels is global chief investment officer, HSBC Global Private
How do high officials of the Federal Reserve view the significant cooling of inflation in the USA?
Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve spoke on Thursday, stating that inflation is making progress. The president of the St. Louis Reserve stated that the current policy interest rate is appropriate at this stage. The president of the San Francisco Reserve stated that given recent employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve may need to make interest rate adjustments, but did not provide a specific schedule for rate cuts.
"Xinmei Federal Reserve News Agency" evaluates CPI in June: Mild inflation opens the door for a rate cut in September.
According to Timiraos' article, after the release of CPI, investors have increased the possibility of rate cuts in September, November, and December this year. A major question at this month's Fed meeting is how much basis Fed officials have laid for a rate cut in September. This year's FOMC voter, President of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, expects that it may be reasonable to cut interest rates soon after the announcement of the CPI, but also said that more information needs to be collected.
US Treasury Yields Plummet as Inflation Surprises, Fed Dovish Bets Grow
US Treasury bond yields tanked on Thursday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed a surprise fall in inflation before Wall Street opened.
Even with a significant drop in inflation in the United States, it was not enough to save the dismal sale of ultra-long-term US Treasury auctions. The 30-year government bonds performed poorly.
There was a significant tail yield difference in this auction, with both bidding multiples and overseas demand being weak. Analysts say that this was a very bad auction, on a day when the U.S. CPI dropped sharply and the yield curve plummeted, auction results pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 2 basis points from its intra-day low, hovering slightly above the 4.18% level.