TMF240830C55000
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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF Newsroom
USA's July PCE inflation rose moderately, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
①In July, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with an expected 2.6%; the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, in line with expectations. ② The impact of this report may be insignificant, but it does confirm what Fed Chairman Powell said, with the focus potentially being on employment trends, as people believe that the inflation trend may continue towards the 2% target.
Tonight, focusing on the Fed's "favorite" inflation indicators!
Wall Street expects a slight rebound in the core PCE price index in July. Will this trend cool down the expectations of a rate cut in September?
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Boosted by expectations of Fed rate cuts, US bonds are expected to achieve their best performance in three years.
As traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since 2020, US Treasury bonds are expected to achieve their best performance in three years.
50 basis points to start an interest rate cut cycle? The Federal Reserve has never done this before.
Deutsche Bank believes that if the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may choose to gradually reduce interest rates by 25 basis points, and will not reduce interest rates sharply all at once.
US 5-Year Auction High Yield Falls From Previous Month, Demand Slightly Higher
Fed's Powell: Inflation still poses upside risks, but supports a 25 basis point rate cut next month.
①Baljan pointed out that he tends to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, gradually adjusting policies by observing market and economic reactions; ②The practice of "lower hiring, lower firing" currently adopted by American companies is unlikely to continue.
Did the significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boost risk assets? Historical results are counterintuitive.
In the history of modern finance, there have been 14 complete cycles of the Federal Reserve. Although the market's reaction to interest rate cuts may vary at different times, there are some obvious trends: when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates quickly, the market performance is worse compared to a gradual interest rate cut scenario. In the scenario of rapid interest rate cuts, within one year after the first interest rate cut, the maximum drawdown is twice as much as in the scenario of gradual interest rate cuts.
U.S. Treasury Yields Would Likely Fall If Fed Cuts Rates by 50bps in September -- Market Talk
The Federal Reserve is "in position"! The global easing curtain is expected to open a new chapter next month.
Last Friday, officials from the three major central banks of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe coincidentally stated that they will enter an interest rate cut cycle in the coming months or continue the previous rate cut pace. This indicates that as the global economy gradually emerges from the post-pandemic period of high inflation, the era of high global borrowing costs is about to end, and the loose monetary policies of major central banks are also expected to usher in a new chapter next month.
On the eve of the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve officials are sounding dovish, expressing strong support for an early rate cut.
Officials still emphasize the health of the US labor market and economy, but advocate for gradually starting to reduce interest rates as soon as possible.
US Securities Held Outright by Fed Decline Sharply as of Aug. 21 Compared With Previous Week
US 20-Year Auction High Yield Falls From Previous Month, Demand Lower
The key clues to the Fed's end of balance sheet reduction need to be found in tonight's Fed minutes?
As the discussion on when the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative tightening (QT) policy continues to heat up on Wall Street, market strategists are hoping to gain more guidance from the Fed minutes to be released tonight; While most market observers currently predict that the Fed will completely end its balance sheet reduction at some point towards the end of this year, the specific timing has yet to be determined.
"Jackson Hole" is a blessing for the stock market? Illustration: over the years, the U.S. stock market has risen more than fallen before and after this event.
One of the main focuses of the global financial market this week is the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, which will kick off on Thursday. According to DataTrek Research, the good news is that historically, the US stock market has risen more than fallen before and after this annual economic policy seminar hosted by the Federal Reserve.
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What will Powell, Jackson, and Hull say at the annual meeting? Traders focus on interest rate cuts, and this Friday may cause a huge earthquake in the US stock market.
Wall Street insiders believe that Powell may not give a clear signal on interest rate cuts, and the key to maintaining market sentiment is not Powell's words, but his tone. The options market pricing expects that the rise or fall of the S&P on Friday will exceed 1%.
Treasury Yields Mixed In Cautious Trade Ahead Of Fed Speech -- Market Talk