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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF Newsroom
The suspense of the Fed's interest rate cut in September may have to wait until the last moment to be revealed! The U.S. stock market wants to see a 25 basis point cut.
The latest employment data did not resolve the market's debate over the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September; however, the employment report did intensify concerns about a cooling labor market.
The theory of "bad news = good news" is gradually disintegrating, and the US stock market is returning to a classic framework: driven by performance and the economy.
Wall Street traders suddenly focus on future economic risks; stocks resume selling off after decoupling from bonds and csi commodity equity index, jpmorgan's model shows different economic recession probabilities across different assets.
usa Qualcomm inflation whistle-blower: non-farm report is not particularly bad, 50% probability of a 25/50 basis point rate cut on September.
Summers said that the August non-farm employment report in the United States was not particularly bad. The numbers in the non-farm report definitely didn't show any obvious weakness, but if there are concerns about the recent trend in statistics, they definitely did not provide evidence of a healthy economy.
Record volume! The heavyweight employment report and the high-ranking officials of the Fed "ignite the wind," betting on a surge in futures trading.
In August, the United States added fewer non-farm jobs than expected. Federal Reserve official Bullard, one of the most influential officials, said that it is crucial to start cutting interest rates in September and has an open attitude towards the magnitude and speed of the rate cut. "New Federal Reserve News Agency" interpreted Bullard's speech as indicating his inclination to support an initial 25 basis point rate cut.
Express News | US Aug. Non-Farm Payrolls +142000 Vs +160000 Forecast, Prior +89000; US Aug. Unemployment Rate 4.2% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.3%
Just finished directing 'Black Monday' last month! How will the financial markets spend Nonfarm Night tonight?
On this big day, which can be considered a "battle of the king of stocks, bonds, and the foreign exchange market," what kind of answer will the August non-farm data give to the market? Will the data performance be as "shocking" as last month? How will the markets of various asset classes perform tonight?
Paulson, a potential finance minister candidate for Trump, said the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates too slowly, and rates should be lowered to 2.5% by the end of 2025.
Potential Treasury Secretary nominee Paulson, a billionaire from the USA, stated that the rise in real interest rates indicates that the Federal Reserve is behind in easing monetary policy, and by the end of next year, "my best estimate is that the federal fund interest rate will be around 3%, or perhaps 2.5%."
Don't delay, Fed! Even the economists at Morgan Stanley have changed their attitude: a big move in September is necessary.
JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli recently stated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting; Although inflation remains slightly above target, the unemployment rate may already be slightly higher than what they consider to be full employment.
Say Goodbye to the Inverted Yield Curve? -- WSJ
U.S. Treasury Yields Could Extend Fall If Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise -- Market Talk
Is the US job market weak? Some traders are betting that the non-farm payroll data tomorrow night will be strong, and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield may rise above 4%.
The US Department of Labor will take action. Analysis suggests that in order to create a 'strong economy' political demand, the United States may adjust the data to make the job market appear stronger. On Wednesday, demand for put options on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased significantly, with traders investing millions of dollars to bet on a surge in bond yields in the next 48 hours.
U.S. Two-10-Year Treasury Yield Curve Steepening Set to Continue -- Market Talk
The decline in job vacancies in the United States exceeded expectations, and the market increased its bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The number of job vacancies in the USA in July decreased from 7.91 million (revised downward from the previous month) to 7.67 million, marking the second consecutive month of decline. Federal Reserve policymakers have explicitly stated that they do not want to see further cooling of the labor market, and it is widely expected that they will begin cutting interest rates at the next meeting.
Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity is flat or declining in 9 regions, consumer spending is slowing, and the job market is mixed with both positive and negative aspects.
The overall assessment of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is not optimistic. Economic activity in most regions remained flat or declined, increasing from five in July to nine, with only three regions experiencing slight economic growth, while consumer spending slowed in most regions.
For the second time in two years, the US bond yield curve briefly ended its inversion, but could this signal a recession?
Weak labor data contributes to the speculation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, briefly ending the inverted yield curve, the last time this happened was on August 5th when the European and American stock markets plummeted due to poor non-farm data. However, historically, when the yield curve ends its inversion, it indicates the beginning of economic problems, which may be a negative signal for the stock market.
US Stocks Plunge as Sept Kicks Off. What's Behind the Drop and How to Protect Your Portfolio?
Safe Haven Demand Expected to Support U.S. Treasurys -- Market Talk
Is the U.S. bond market betting on a rate cut of over 2% within a year, destined to be swept away by this week's non-farm payrolls?
The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by over two percentage points in the next 12 months, which would be the largest reduction since the 1980s, excluding periods of economic downturn. The first major test will come on Friday.
"September curse": The US stock market felt it on the first day!
Looking back at the market of the past few decades, September is not only a bad month for US stocks, but also for assets such as gold and bitcoin. This opening cold water in September is clearly causing various cross-asset traders to feel a touch of the "September curse" chilling atmosphere...
Manufacturing data is constantly bringing bad news, once again sparking market concerns about the economic outlook in the USA.
① The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, which means that manufacturing economic activity has been cooling down for five months in a row; ② S&P Global's August Manufacturing PMI was revised down from 48 to 47.9, originally expected to be adjusted to 48.1. In July, this number was 49.6.