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Harris is ahead of Trump? The options market sees a surge in bullish bets, while long positions in government bonds hit a three-month high.
As opinion polls show Harris gaining an advantage in a potential showdown with Trump, there has been a clear short-term call betting trend in the usa options market recently.
"Bond Guardian" returns! Regardless of who wins, will US bond yields still hit 5%?
Bond investors are "voting with their feet," betting that the continued interest rate cuts by the Fed and the expansionary fiscal policy of the next government will push up long-term inflation. Once the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is pushed up to 5%, it will impact the Fed's subsequent rate-cutting actions.
SA Sentiment: Debt Is the Top Economic Issue for U.S. Voters
Facing the impact of election day: the usa stock, bond, and currency markets are entering a 'battle state'!
①As the polls continue to show intense competition in the usa presidential election, on the first trading day of the "super week" entering the election and the Fed interest rate decision, US stocks, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have all fallen; ②At the same time, traders in various cross-asset fields have already entered the final preparation mode before election day...
Traders are withdrawing from the "Trump trade" and are no longer betting on expectations of rising inflation.
On Monday, usa Vice President Harris received the final support of voters in key states, while participants in the bonds market have withdrawn from the 'Trump trade' and are no longer betting on rising inflation expectations.
No matter who becomes president, goldman sachs trading department: regardless of the outcome, CTA will sell stocks this week.
Last week, CTA has already sold $8 billion worth of global equity. goldman sachs trading department predicts that in the market's decline, the E-mini s&p 500 index will experience an outflow of $11.2 billion, and will have an outflow of $0.94 billion in the case of an increase.
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