• 10baggerbamm : actually Tom Lee said a 40% gain in the Russell by the end of the year by the end of the Summers where his exact words. the problem is small caps need two things lower rates and a strong economy and now there's a fear we're going to go into a recession that chairman Powell has lost control that he missed the opportunity to cut and you're going to find out today unemployment and if unemployment is 4.2 we're fucked because even though he could cut today at any point in time he's going to wait till September because he's data dependent. a half point cut will not help any small caps you need minimum 150 basis points to 200 basis points that puts his second half of next year best case scenario to get there so that these companies can refinance at lower debt because they're paying $12 to 14% interest right now on borrowed money so a half point cut saves them zero. furthermore in the past 4 years the Russell as a basket has had declining earnings so right now you just had a multiple expansion based off of the ideal scenario rates are going to come down money is cheap and this basket rallies except there's two negatives which I've outlined here why it's not going to be a 40% game and I will tell you this when the market tanks in tech people are not buying Russell stocks

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• 10baggerbamm : because he was asked a question about a 50 basis point cut and he pretty much said that that's not something they're considering at this time it's not something that they discussed so you had a lot of people 3 weeks ago month ago they were saying September the 50 and now it's best case a quarter

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• DiMoney OP 10baggerbamm : Thanks for clarification. But IWM still considered bullish though.  Agree?

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• 10baggerbamm DiMoney OP : we had that massive Spike to 51 yesterday in the Russell I mean I'm looking at TNA to leverage DTF by the way which is a leveraged Russell index and it shot straight up and it came right back down so I don't know if that was a buy program that kicked in I don't know if somebody covered a short but you definitely had a spike and then it lost the $3 very very quickly. I think the momentum trade in the Russell is still there the chart looks really good . I will say that with meta posting better than expected numbers it's gapping after hours immediately and I think the texts are going to have another day strong day and if money flows back into tech then I think it will hamper the Russell's move to the extent that many people thought it was going to rally to.

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• 10baggerbamm DiMoney OP : and I actually heard one of the bobbleheads on TV yesterday that said what I've been hammering for several weeks now and that's not that the money is chasing velocity and movement here and it's not that these companies have the ability to move significantly higher with not a lot of volume compared to the large mag 7 stocks but what it has to do is using a little common sense that small caps need an expanding economy in order to do well and the fact that the FED would be cutting rates is because he's the economy is slowing and this is what I've been saying that it's contradicting the reason to own small caps and the person also said what I've been saying that if we get a quarter now and a quarter in December a half point doesn't do shit you need 150 to 200 basis points before they're able to refinance their debt to have any significant savings at lower interest rates and I've been saying that you can go back and look at my quotes so these quote unquote experts on TV are now starting to come to the realization of what I have said that the move is just a velocity move I understand why Tom Lee pounded the table 40% I get it but the underlying fundamentals are not there yet because it won't be till the latter half of next year best case scenario before earnings begin to change as a result of lower interest rates and that assumes we don't go into a recession because the FED cuts because the economy is slowing in the consumers are tapped.

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• 10baggerbamm 10baggerbamm : so in summation there are many people that have adopted tom leaves belief that just a little bit of selling from the mag 7 into the Russell will translate into this enormous move and they're just repeating a story and I think the people that are buying now are late to the game because the other half of the group that I think Tom Lee was hoping would adopt this movement are now saying well wait a second economy slowing you don't buy Russell small caps and you need enormous amount of rate cuts 1.5 to 2% for them to save money we're a year out best case scenario maybe even more and Wall Street doesn't wait that long especially nowadays they're looking for immediate gratification

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