Trump Shooting Offers Test for Stock Market as Investors Weigh His Election Odds Now
Markets have been taking their cue from the probability of Trump's election victory.
It's Time for the Fed to End the Waiting Game
Why wait until September? That is the question hanging over markets after Thursday's surprisingly weak inflation reading. There doesn't seem to be much reason for the Federal Reserve
Treasury Yields Wobble On Hotter-Than-Expected Producer Inflation -- Market Talk
Treasury yields rise with hotter-than-expected U.S. producer inflation, but lose some of their initial gains.
U.S. Treasury Investors Look to Be in Bond-Positive Mood -- Market Talk
Investors on the primary market for U.S. government bonds seem to be leaning toward the bond-positive view, Elmar Voelker, senior fixed income analyst at LBBW, says in a note. Admittedly, the post-CPI 30-year bond auction on Thursday was somewhat slow, while the most recent auction of 10-year Treasurys didn't meet quite as much demand as its predecessor in June, even though the bid-to-cover ratio was above the long-term average, he says.
The Nasdaq fell nearly 2%, with the largest selling volume of the 'Seven Sisters' in a year and a half, while small caps and Chinese concept stocks surged, and US bonds rose sharply.
Comprehensive cooling of US inflation, September rate cut betting pushing US stocks rotation, S&P and Nasdaq ended seven-day consecutive gains and moved away from their highs, Tesla plummeted 8.4%, the worst in nearly half a year and stopped 11-day consecutive gains, Nvidia fell 5.6%, and the chip index fell 3.5%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose 3.6%, the best since November last year and the highest in two and a half years, and the worst-performing real estate sector this year had the largest increase in the year. US bond yields fell sharply across the board, with the US dollar falling the deepest in two months. The yen rose by 2.6% at one point, the biggest gain since the end of 2022, and anonymous officials confirmed that the government intervened to rescue the currency.
How do high officials of the Federal Reserve view the significant cooling of inflation in the USA?
Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve spoke on Thursday, stating that inflation is making progress. The president of the St. Louis Reserve stated that the current policy interest rate is appropriate at this stage. The president of the San Francisco Reserve stated that given recent employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve may need to make interest rate adjustments, but did not provide a specific schedule for rate cuts.
"Xinmei Federal Reserve News Agency" evaluates CPI in June: Mild inflation opens the door for a rate cut in September.
According to Timiraos' article, after the release of CPI, investors have increased the possibility of rate cuts in September, November, and December this year. A major question at this month's Fed meeting is how much basis Fed officials have laid for a rate cut in September. This year's FOMC voter, President of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, expects that it may be reasonable to cut interest rates soon after the announcement of the CPI, but also said that more information needs to be collected.
US Treasury Yields Plummet as Inflation Surprises, Fed Dovish Bets Grow
US Treasury bond yields tanked on Thursday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed a surprise fall in inflation before Wall Street opened.
Even with a significant drop in inflation in the United States, it was not enough to save the dismal sale of ultra-long-term US Treasury auctions. The 30-year government bonds performed poorly.
There was a significant tail yield difference in this auction, with both bidding multiples and overseas demand being weak. Analysts say that this was a very bad auction, on a day when the U.S. CPI dropped sharply and the yield curve plummeted, auction results pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 2 basis points from its intra-day low, hovering slightly above the 4.18% level.
Treasury Yields Fall Amid Mixed U.S. Indicators -- Market Talk
Treasury yields fall as June inflation slows more than expected while weekly jobless claims decline, giving mixed signs about the U.S. economy and likely making it harder to guess when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.
Traders are betting heavily on a rebound in US bonds before the CPI is announced.
Bond investors who have been preparing for a rebound in the US bond market are seeking support from the June CPI data to be released on Thursday in the USA.
A Bond Rally Is Coming. This Time, Main Street Is Ready
By Ian Salisbury Suddenly, the bond rally that failed to arrive in 2024 doesn't seem so far off. And for once Main Street investors, who have been pouring money into bond funds, seem poised to
No longer a case of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"? The New York Federal Reserve comments that this time, "Powell Pivot" will be more sustainable than at the end of last year.
Nowadays, the threshold for Fed rate cuts is lower than in previous months and the situation has changed. Powell believes that inflation is returning to normal and the labor market is clearly weakening, further weakness is unnecessary and unwanted.
Treasury Yields Fall Ahead Of Powell Testimony, Inflation Data -- Market Talk
Treasury yields decline ahead of Chair Powell's House address today and inflation data later this week.
Yellen and Powell agree: the US labor market is weakening the push for inflation, and inflation pressures may continue to ease.
The current labor market is no longer the primary factor driving inflation in the US economy, as it was in the early stages of the pandemic recovery.
U.S. Treasurys Look Undervalued at Current Levels -- Market Talk
Ten-year U.S. Treasurys look undervalued at current yields of around 4.3%, says BeiChen Lin, investment strategist at Russell Investments, in a note.
Citigroup and JPMorgan's bullish US bond trading strategy is expected to receive further boost from CPI.
Before this important inflation data is released this week, some Wall Street giants believe that trading strategies that are expected to take the upper hand this year are gathering momentum.
USD: Inflation and Powell in Focus This Week – ING
The dollar is modestly stronger out of the weekend as a surprise win of the left-wing alliance in the French second-round legislative elections sent European currencies lower and fuelled some safe-haven demand, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) rising, ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole suggests.
Bullish on the big transaction, causing a buzz in the market. This is probably the most important trade in the second half of the year.
Wall Street major banks have collectively spoken out, stating that the normalization of the US yield curve - where the slope becomes steeper - will be the most important trade in the second half of this year.
Treasury Yields Rise Ahead Of Powell's Testimony -- Market Talk
Treasury yields recover a little from last week's decline, which was supported by cooler-than-expected U.S. data that bolstered the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts.