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Be careful of a significant pullback in the U.S. stock market! Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm for 2025: three major risks loom.
Goldman Sachs warned on Thursday that U.S. stocks will face a series of risks in 2025, which increase the likelihood of a significant market correction at some point this year; The three main risks are: a sharp rise in U.S. stocks in 2024, overly high U.S. stock valuations, and high or increased market concentration risk within the investment portfolio.
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Goldman Sachs strategists warn: The pricing of U.S. stocks is at a "perfect level" and is likely to experience a pullback.
Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that as investors digest the uncertainty surrounding rising Bond yields, overvaluations, and further interest rate cuts, the current "perfect" earnings market environment may be difficult to sustain.
1/10 [Strong and Weak Materials]
[Bullish and Bearish Factors] Bullish factors: 1 USD = 158.10-20 JPY, active Share Buyback, Tokyo Stock Exchange's request for corporate value enhancement. Bearish factors: Nikkei average declined (39605.09, -375.97), USA market closed, Chicago Nikkei Futures decreased (39545, -15), VIX index increased (18.07, +0.37), US long-term interest rates rose, prolonged combat in Ukraine and Israel, concerns over China's economic recession. Points to note: January Single Option special settlement index (SQ) calculation, household survey (1
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
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Google and Microsoft also expressed goodwill towards the incoming president! They donated 1 million dollars to Trump's inauguration Fund.
① Microsoft, Google, and other technology giants donated to Trump's inauguration fund, with Microsoft donating 1 million USD, and Google also announced donations and provided technical support; ② Technology companies are facing regulatory pressure from the Republican Party and are trying to improve their relationship with the Trump administration. Microsoft's CEO Nadella has met with Trump multiple times in hopes of promoting favorable AI policies.
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How high are the valuations of the U.S. stock market? They have reached the level of "irrational exuberance."
Bloomberg pointed out that the current valuation of the US stock market has reached its highest level since 2002, a level that is exactly the same as when Greenspan issued his warning of "irrational exuberance" in 1996.
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