0.05Open0.05Pre Close0 Volume10 Open Interest2.50Strike Price0.00Turnover38.35%IV5.41%PremiumJan 17, 2025Expiry Date0.00Intrinsic Value100Multiplier19DDays to Expiry0.05Extrinsic Value100Contract SizeAmericanOptions Type-0.3201Delta1.5633Gamma51.80Leverage Ratio-0.0020Theta-0.0004Rho-16.58Eff Leverage0.0021Vega
Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Discussion
De-spac Play (M&A closed: 9/15/21) currently undervalued
LFG is the Leading Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Company through the simultaneous merger of Aria Energy and Archaea Energy
Sector Opportunity:Natural Gas has seen a major price increase based on Hurricane Ida, up 80% YTD and 31% last month; LFG is tracking that performance up 79% YTD and 32% last month; Goldman thinks the price of Natural Gas could double and recently invested $40M
Revenue:$204M, growing at 38% CAGR; 2x better than the competitors
Profitability:Day 1 profitable $40M in ‘20; In ’21, $65M, 38% margin; 10x EBITDA growth in 5 years; 3x better than the competitors
Valuation:Trading at ~16x 2022 EV/EBITDA, Comps trading at 31x; Implies the stock is currently undervalued and could double
Analyst coverage:PT $32 based on Ortex data, implies a 66% upside
Institutions:Very high Ownership Accumulation Score on fintel, (Ranked 93 out of 21,606 companies); 72 Institutional Investors; Goldman recently invested $40M
Stock:Up 30% in the last month; 100% upside based on comps: PT $40 Thinly traded stock with no shares to borrow, major volume spike could really drive price higher
Catalysts:Natural gas price increases, Initiation reports from more established banks, continued institution buying,
$National Fuel Gas (NFG.US)$ $Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP.US)$ $Atmos Energy (ATO.US)$
$Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP.US)$0% -> 8.52%
$Pedevco (PED.US)$8.51% -> 0%
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