"The worst ever"! Trump attacks Harris using non-farm data: pushing the usa economy off a cliff.
①As the USA election day approaches, the two presidential candidates of the parties do not miss any opportunity to attack each other; ②Trump harshly criticized the non-farm report at a rally in Michigan on Friday, calling it the 'worst employment report in our country's history'.
Wall Street comments on October non-farm payrolls: Will not affect the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut this month, the interpretation of the data is subjective.
Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal journalist known as the 'new Fed news agency', stated that the analysis of this employment report can be 'subjective', while most Wall Street analysts believe that the poor data is mainly due to the two hurricanes in October and the Boeing strike, but some analysts are also concerned that the job market is indeed deteriorating. Almost all analysts believe that this report will not affect the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month.
Various sectors in the usa assess non-farm payrolls: Can 0.012 million still do the "American-style downward revision"? Rate cut expectations are stable.
1. The release of the USA non-farm payroll figures for October on Friday was only a meager 0.012 million, far below the market's expected 0.113 million, and the market expectations had already taken into account natural disasters and strikes; 2. The even weaker endogenous trend makes the Fed's interest rate cut next Thursday a foregone conclusion; 3. Considering the non-farm data for the first 9 months of this year, there have been 7 downward revisions, and the October data presents a potential highlight of 'revised to negative numbers.'
USA October ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5, hitting a 15-month low, with the price index soaring.
USA's October ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell to 46.5, hitting a new low since July 2023, below the expected 47.6 and lower than the previous value of 47.2 in September. The employment index has been below the boom-bust line for the fifth consecutive month, the price payment index surged by 6.5 points in a single month, production activities plummeted sharply, and inventories further declined.
What a shocking news! The US non-farm employment in October plummeted, will there be a rate cut in November?
Double impact of hurricane and strike.
With the strong return of the US dollar, how will the Asia market respond? $6 trillion forex reserves act as a shield.
The US dollar index rose more than 3% in October. If Trump regains power and triggers trade tensions again, the depreciation pressure on non-US currencies may continue. However, analysis indicates that Asia's $6.4 trillion in foreign reserves gives investors confidence that central banks have enough ammunition to counter the US dollar's strengthening caused by the US election. The continuous growth of Asia's foreign exchange reserves gives central banks in various countries enough intervention capabilities.
