High inflation is "squeezing" bottom-tier consumers, and the USA credit card default rate has reached a new high in 14 years.
The credit card loan default rate in the USA has reached its highest level since the financial crisis, indicating that the financial situation of low-income Consumers is deteriorating after years of high inflation.
Goldman Sachs annual forecast: "Trump 2.0" top ten key issues.
Goldman Sachs predicts that next year, the USA's economic and Consumer growth will exceed general market expectations, but Goldman Sachs remains more dovish than the market, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three more times in March, June, and September 2025. Goldman Sachs believes that Trump is unlikely to fire or demote Powell.
USD/CHF Softens Below 0.9050 Amid Muted Trading
Goldman Sachs 'Ten Questions' for Trump 2.0: Where is the USA economy and the Federal Reserve headed in 2025?
1. Analysts at Goldman Sachs emphasize that as we enter the new year, the fundamentals of the USA economy are expected to remain robust; 2. They point out that the uncertainties regarding policy changes and geopolitical risks during Trump's second term may impact the outlook.
The manufacturing industry in the USA is facing a harsh winter, with the Chicago PMI unexpectedly plummeting to levels close to those during the lockdown period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In December, the Chicago PMI in the USA was 36.9, significantly below the expected 43, with the previous value in November being 40.2. Given the dismal Chicago PMI data, the upcoming critical ISM manufacturing PMI to be released later this week may also be disappointing. The unexpected sharp decline in the Chicago PMI has led to an expansion in the gains of US Treasury prices during the day, and the drop in US stock prices has also widened at one point.
New York foreign exchange market: The US dollar rises to the highest level since 2022, with the Japanese yen leading the gains.
The USD rose to its highest level since November 2022 on Monday, supported by year-end capital flows. The yen led the G-10 MMF against the USD. The Bloomberg spot Exchange Rates Index increased by 0.1%, reaching a year-to-date gain of 7.6%, expected to achieve its best performance since 2015.
